European Soccer 2021/22 Picks and Predictions Week Ending April 3

Some weeks, crafting this article is a test of willpower. I write a stand-alone article for EPL picks because that’s what American gamblers are the most comfortable with, but that leaves me with a single spot to give out my “best bets” for every other League. The problem? I regularly follow 11 other professional leagues across Europe, and choosing just 3 or 4 picks to write about can be an extremely frustrating exercise. I’m like a kid in a candy shop that wants to buy everything but can only pick out a couple of treats, to use the old and lazy trope.

Alas, my job here is to do that work and bitching about it doesn’t do you any good (but it is cathartic for me, who doesn’t like complaining?) so I’m sure none of you feel all that much sympathy for me. But just know that if anyone wants to pay me to quit my real job and write up dozens of obscure soccer picks, I’m absolutely your guy. Nobody gets down and dirty with Belgian Jupiler League value like this cartoon.

Enough of my rambling, let’s get to the good stuff. Picks!

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🇪🇸 Levante vs. Villareal: Saturday April 2, 10:45AM EDT

I don’t often come out and say one pick from the article is my favorite, but this time I am. To keep this simple, I haven’t got a god damn clue how the team totals for Villareal are so low, and it almost makes me worried I’m missing something (I’m not, I’ve looked extensively). Villareal are just -118 to score over 1.5, which is a very low bar for a team who qualified for the UCL knockout stage facing last placed Levante. Oh, and Levante AVERAGE 2 goals conceded per match, which should skew higher against one of the better teams in La Liga. I could drag this on with analysis and hilarious jokes because that’s what I do, but I dont really see the point of belaboring this one. I like Levante to score Over 1.5 at -118. I also like, if you’re looking to get a little frisky (and who isnt on the weekends), Over 2.5 at +285. I just don’t see how I can bet anything else here.

⛏️ PICK: Villareal Team Total OVER 1.5 (-118)

⛏️ BONUS PICK: Villareal Team Total OVER 2.5 (+285) 

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🇳🇱 Twente vs. PSV: Saturday April 2, 12:45 PM EDT

I don’t put a whole lot of Dutch soccer in my write ups because it’s not the most interesting league, but every once in a while I find a game that catches my eye and I have to share it. To put things in the easiest of terms, the gap between these two teams is much bigger than it looks from the table. PSV and Ajax are far ahead of everyone else in the Eredivisie and Twente, while solid, will be fairly outmatched here. At -140 the price isnt gonna blow you out of the water or make you rich, but PSV can’t afford to drop points in the title race and I expect they take care of business. Not a super exciting write up, but there just isnt all that much to this pick. Short and sweet, like a midget covered in honey.

⛏️ PICK: PSV moneyline (-140)

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🇧🇪 Cercle Brugge vs. Gent: Sunday April 3, 10:00AM EDT

Well, I promised some Jupiler League value so here we are. One of the reasons I love watching the Belgian League is these fuckers score goals by the boatload and there isnt much defense played outside of a couple annoying outliers. Gent is close to that line, but they still play fairly open and are liable to concede at least a goal per match. Cercle, on the other hand’ play a clusterfuck style (some high end technical analysis right there) that leads to goals on both ends, which you can see from their 46 goals scored and 43 conceded through 32 matches. Add in that Cercle is on the outside looking in for qualification into the “Conference League Promotion Group” (I’m not going to even try to explain the absurd league format they have but it’s important) and I think they come out aggressive here, which will lead to goals on both ends. Over 2.5 isn’t crazy valuable at -118, but that’s low for the Jupiler League and I think these two cross that line with 2 weeks to train and rest legs. Look for goals in this one.

⛏️ PICK: Total goals OVER 2.5 goals (-118)

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🇮🇹 Juventus vs. Inter: Sunday April 3, 2:45PM EDT

After giving you bets on all the games you don’t give one damn about, I figured I would throw the readers a bone here and put in an important match. Both of these sides are very much in touch with league-leaders AC Milan, but a win is needed to keep pace. I can’t say I have any confidence in which team will win this one, given that both are in fairly good form and scoring well, but I do think this match has goals in it. These sides have combined for 109 goals in their 30 matches on the year, and both have the talent up front to take advantage of opportunities. While Inter and Juve do also have stellar defensive records (2nd and 3rd in Serie A), taking 3 points in this game is crucial and I expect both to go searching for the win for all 90 minutes. To look at things more broadly, these are the two most recent title winners in Italy, and their fan bases will expect nothing less than to be fighting for that crown, which gives me confidence that neither will be content to settle for a safe point. BTTS isn’t hugely valuable at -140, but it has the right money for the price and I like the comfort of needing just one from each team. Throw in a low corner total to add some payout if you want a little extra skin in the game.

⛏️ PICK: Both Teams To Score - YES (-144)