MLB Best Betting Picks and Predictions for Phillies vs. Pirates on Saturday, July 30, 2022

Tone gives us all his MLB best bets from the Saturday July 30th, 2022 slate featuring the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. 

Today's MLB best bets and odds for Phillies vs. Pirates on this Saturday, the 30th of July 2022, are proudly brought to you by BetMGM Sportsbook.

Before Tone shares his wisdom, our MLB predictive analytics model DimersBOT says the favorite, the Phillies, have a 56% chance to win on the moneyline, while the underdog Pirates have a 58% shot of covering the run line after 10,000 simulations of this match-up. If you're looking to bet the total, our model gives the Under 8 runs a 52% chance of winning.

These probabilities will continue to update right up until the first pitch, so keep an eye on them and see if you can get yourself some value.

Phillies vs. Pirates Predictions

• 56% chance the Phillies win on the money line
• 58% probability the Pirates cover the run line
• 52% shot that Phillies-Pirates goes Under 8 runs

For the most up to date live sports predictions, check out the interactive widget below. It's constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points👇

Phillies vs. Pirates Best Bets

Saturday July 30, 2022 7:15 pm ET

PICK: Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 +105
PICK: Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases +110
PICK: Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 Total Bases +125
PICK: Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Total Bases +125

The Phillies look to clinch the series win as they continue their four-game series with the Pirates tonight, and this is the perfect time to claim the BetMGM bet $10, win $200 promo*. It's expiring this weekend, so make sure you get it ➡️ here ⬅️ before it's no longer an option.

The Phillies took the first two games of the series by scores of 8-7 and 4-2. Their offense has a very favorable match-up here, as Philadelphia will face Pittsburgh righty Mitch Keller. Keller is 3-7 on the season and has a 4.55 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and an OBA of .274.

In two career starts against the Phillies, Keller has an ERA of 12.00 and a WHIP of 2.22 with an OBA of .478. Behind Keller also happens to be a Pittsburgh bullpen that has the second-worst bullpen ERA in the league this season at 4.64 — and the fifth-worst bullpen ERA in baseball over the last 30 days at 4.81. For those reasons, I like Philadelphia's team total to go Over in this match-up. 

I am also going to target three total bases props on the Phillies as well, as I'm just really counting on Philadelphia's bats tonight. First, let's go with Castellanos, who has struggled this season but may finally be getting going as he has eclipsed this mark in four of his last five games. In his career, he is 7 for 21 against Keller with two doubles and a homer.

Next, we have Hoskins, who is coming off a 4-for-4 game last night. Rhys is 2 for 2 against Keller with a double and a triple in their brief head-to-head history. It's a small sample size, but it's still hard to ignore.

Finally we have the red-hot Bohm. "Bohmer '' has hit safely in 14 straight games and has eclipsed his total bases prop in each of the last six games. It's hard to see the Phillies having a big night and Bohm not joining in on the fun. 

Philadelphia's offense should have a field day tonight against Keller and the Pittsburgh bullpen. That's why I like the Phillies so much, but I also like BetMGM's bet $10, win $200* no matter what promo ➡️ here ⬅️. It expires this weekend, so just make sure you bet $10 on an MLB moneyline and you'll score $200 in free bets instantly. This is an offer you'll want to take advantage of before it's gone! 

*This BetMGM offer is not available to users in New York, so we recommend taking a look at DraftKings' bet $5, get $100, win or lose offer instead.

MORE: Dimers' full betting preview for Phillies vs. Pirates

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