PGA Tour Expert Picks: AT&T Byron Nelson Predictions & Best Bets

This week, the PGA TOUR heads to Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson. This event features the return of World No. 2 Scottie Scheffler to the field after skipping the Wells Fargo Championship, and a back-to-back defending champ in K.H. Lee. We have two Best Bets worth taking, let's dive in. Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season, where we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has already found some nice edges to start the year. 

Who will win the AT&T Byron Nelson?

This Week's PGA Tour Win Probabilities

To make things easy for you, we listed the highest probabilities to win and our best PGA Golf bets for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, down below.

RELATED: Dimers' Golf Rankings - Who is No. 1?

AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Preview

A week away from the PGA Championship, attention turns to TPC Craig Ranch in Texas, where many golfers will be looking to tune up in preparation for the TOUR's next major. A course famous for low-scoring cards (K.H. Lee set the record with a 26-under  in 2022), this will require precision and persistence from the field. 

Lee will be looking to win this event for the third-straight year, while Scottie Scheffler is hoping to hoist a trophy in his native state. With just six of the World's Top-30 golfers teeing off, there's plenty of value to be found outside of the big names. Putting is expected to be critical on these greens, so the tournament may be won and lost in the short game.

Dimers' Golf H2H Matchup Tool compares our model's head-to-head probabilities for golfers competing in the current PGA Tour tournament. Choose your players and switch between Fair Odds or Percentages.

MORE: Our Best Head-to-Head Matchups Parlay

Best Bets to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson

The consensus favorite and rightfully so according to our model, is Scottie Scheffler, whose best odds are +360 on DraftKings. We give him a 26.6% probability to win, good enough for a slight edge of around 5% with the odds implying a 21.74% chance. He's the World No. 2 for a reason, and even at +360, there's a sliver of value to be had. If you like Scheffler but don't like his price, consider grabbing a live bet at longer odds if someone else jumps out to an early lead.

Other strong plays from our model this week include Tyrrell Hatton at +1300 on FanDuel and a 9.3% probability, and Jason Day at +1700, the only other golfer with a probability higher than 5%. Coming off his third top-five finish in his last six starts, Hatton is in great form and seems most likely to contest throughout the weekend.

For that same reason, Hatton is a recommended play to finish Top 5 at +280. Matt Kuchar at +600 offers some slight value with an 18.6% probability to finish in the Top 5 per our model, while Tom Hoge is a good bet to finish in the Top 10 (+450) or crack the Top 5 (+900).

Interestingly enough, our model isn't super high on K.H. Lee to make a run at the threepeat. We've got him at just a 3.3% chance to win, and he sits outside the model's five most-likely golfers to secure a top-10 finish.