Joao Fonseca vs. Thiago Monteiro prediction, odds, picks for ATP Rio Open 2026

Joao Fonseca will take on Thiago Monteiro in the round of 32 at the ATP Rio de Janeiro event on Tuesday.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Joao Fonseca as the most likely winner of the Fonseca vs. Monteiro match.

This article offers further insights into Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.

Fonseca vs. Monteiro prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's Fonseca-Monteiro men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Fonseca a 72% chance of beating Monteiro at the ATP Rio Open tournament.

Additionally, Fonseca has a 69% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Fonseca (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 21.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting**, according to our model.

Joao Fonseca vs. Thiago Monteiro odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Fonseca vs. Monteiro picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Thiago Monteiro to win.

Although Monteiro is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Fonseca vs. Monteiro updates and essential details

The ATP Rio Open match between Joao Fonseca and Thiago Monteiro is scheduled to commence on Tuesday at 5:00 PM ET.

• Who: Joao Fonseca vs. Thiago Monteiro
• Date: Tuesday, February 17, 2026
• Approx. Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Joao Fonseca, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat Thiago Monteiro at the ATP Rio Open tournament.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Fonseca vs. Monteiro insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.