2026 World Cup Predictions

2026 World Cup predictions powered by our data-driven simulator. For 6/16, Norway, Argentina, and Austria lead Dimers' win probabilities.
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Norway
75.2%
DraftKings
Iraq
8.6%
Hard Rock Bet
Algeria
11.1%
bet365
Argentina
69.0%
DraftKings
Jordan
12.8%
BetRivers
Austria
67.8%
bet365
Congo DR
9.1%
Hard Rock Bet
Portugal
72.8%
bet365
Croatia
18.8%
Caesars
England
56.9%
Hard Rock Bet
Panama
35.3%
Caesars
Ghana
38.5%
bet365
Colombia
68.1%
Caesars
Uzbekistan
11.6%
Hard Rock Bet
South Africa
21.4%
Hard Rock Bet
Czechia
53.7%
BetMGM
Bosnia and Herzegovina
15.3%
theScore Bet
Switzerland
62.6%
DraftKings
Qatar
10.0%
theScore Bet
Canada
72.2%
bet365
South Korea
22.5%
DraftKings
Mexico
51.2%
bet365
Australia
19.4%
DraftKings
United States
56.6%
Hard Rock Bet
Morocco
54.9%
BetMGM
Scotland
19.2%
FanDuel
Haiti
4.9%
theScore Bet
Brazil
84.7%
BetMGM
Paraguay
25.0%
DraftKings
Türkiye
49.2%
BetMGM
Sweden
19.4%
theScore Bet
Netherlands
59.6%
DraftKings
Côte d'Ivoire
17.4%
Hard Rock Bet
Germany
61.5%
bet365
Curaçao
5.1%
DraftKings
Ecuador
82.0%
BetMGM
Japan
63.6%
bet365
Tunisia
14.3%
Hard Rock Bet
Uruguay
1
Saudi Arabia
1
New Zealand
2
Iran
2
Senegal
1
France
3
FanDuel
BetMGM
Caesars
DraftKings
bet365
BetRivers
Fanatics
theScore Bet
Hard Rock Bet
Kalshi
Novig
Polymarket

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2026 World Cup predictions

Across Tuesday's group stage slate, Norway tops the board at a 75.2% win probability against Iraq. Argentina and Austria also rank among the leading moneyline favorites.

Team Prob. Opponent Game Date
Norway 75.2% vs. Iraq 8:00PM ET
Argentina 68.8% vs. Algeria 8:00PM ET
Austria 67.8% vs. Jordan 8:00PM ET
France 64.4% vs. Senegal 8:00PM ET

Dimers' World Cup predictor is powered by a machine learning model that estimates expected goals for each team. From those goal forecasts, we generate win probabilities for both sides and the draw.

World Cup predictor: 2026 predictions & odds

Our World Cup predictor shows which teams are most likely to win matches and progress through the tournament—powered by data, not opinion.

World Cup 2026 expands to 48 teams across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, introducing more matches, more scenarios, and more uncertainty than ever before. With added complexity, it becomes harder to separate real edges from popular narratives—making a probability-driven approach more important.

We model the likelihood of every outcome, helping you quickly see who is most likely to win in 90 minutes and how each team's path through the tournament shapes up. We build our projections on methods refined across major competitions, including the 2022 World Cup, Euro 2024, and Copa América 2024.

Alongside these probabilities, we include the best available sportsbook odds to highlight where the market may be overvaluing or undervaluing teams. By focusing on likelihoods and pricing, the predictor helps you identify potential value and understand how the tournament is most likely to unfold—without relying on hype.

To learn more about the basics of World Cup betting, see our beginner-friendly guide on how to bet on international soccer.

Why use our 2026 World Cup predictor?

Spot betting opportunities before every kickoff.

  • Catch where the price is wrong: Compare our probabilities to market odds and spot value quickly.
  • Read every matchup clearly: Check simple probabilities for 3-way moneyline, totals, and other markets alongside the best available odds.
  • See beyond team strength: Account for match context, opponent strength, and tournament conditions.
  • Stay consistent across every match: One clear view from the group stage through to the final.

No noise. Just an edge you can actually measure.

How our 2026 World Cup predictions simulator works

Dimers' team of sports experts, pro bettors, and data scientists builds our predictions from the ground up, in-house. Our team controls, maintains, and updates every data input—for bettors, by bettors. 

We use consistent statistical methods to find value.

  • Predicted with data science: Each matchup is modeled with a wide range of inputs, including matchup data, opponent strength, and match context.
  • Probability over opinion: We forecast results based on how a match is likely to play out—beyond market movement and opinion.
  • Regular updates: Our data model adjusts as new squad and matchup information becomes available.
  • Proven across tournaments: We’ve refined our approach over years of analyzing World Cups, Euros, and Copa América.

The result is a clear, data-backed view of probability and price you can rely on.

Note: Pre-match probabilities reflect 90-minute outcomes; knockout progression markets may differ. 

Learn more about how Dimers uses predictive analytics to identify hidden value.

What World Cup markets do we predict?

We cover the most important World Cup betting markets—each paired with clear probabilities and the best available odds, allowing you to compare price and likelihood easily.

  • H2H (3-way moneyline): Win, draw, and loss probabilities for every match—so you can see the true chances behind each result.
  • Over/under: Projected total goals for each match, with probabilities assigned to different goal lines (e.g., over/under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5), helping you understand whether a game is expected to be high- or low-scoring.
  • First & anytime goalscorer: Player-level projections showing the likelihood of who scores first and which players are most likely to score at any point in the match.

To see more probabilities, including double chance, both teams to score (BTTS), and correct score, unlock full access with Dimers Pro.

Explore more soccer betting tools

Our World Cup 2026 predictions are just the starting point—explore our full suite of tools built to support every type of bet.

See the edge across every World Cup market.

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Bet with clarity, not impulse. Dimers is built to support informed decisions—not rushed ones. Always stay in control and bet within your means. If you're experiencing a problem with sports betting, please see our responsible gambling resources.

Your Questions Answered

How does the Dimers World Cup 2026 Predictor work?
Dimers' World Cup predictor is powered by a machine-learning model that estimates expected goals for each team. From those goal forecasts, we generate win probabilities for both sides and the draw, running 10,000 simulations to find the most likely outcomes.