NFL Player Projections

How to read our NFL player projections

Each row represents one player in one game. Each column is a separate projection, so you can sort the slate by the stat, fantasy scoring format, or touchdown outcome you care about. 

Fantasy points

• PPR (points per reception): Fantasy scoring format where each reception is worth 1 point, in addition to standard yardage and touchdown points.
• HPPR (half points per reception): Fantasy scoring format where each reception is worth 0.5 points, in addition to standard yardage and touchdown points.

Passing

• CMP (passing completions): Projected number of completed passes by the quarterback.
• YDS (passing yards): Projected total yards gained through completed passes.

Rushing

• YDS (rushing yards): Projected total yards gained by the player on rushing attempts. 

Receiving

• REC (receptions): Projected total catches.
• YDS (receiving yards): Projected total yards gained after catching passes.

Touchdowns

The touchdown columns are probabilities rather than projected totals.

• 1+ (anytime touchdown): Probability that the player scores at least one touchdown at any point in the game.
• 2+ (2+ touchdowns): Probability that the player scores two or more touchdowns.
• 3+ (3+ touchdowns): Probability that the player scores three or more touchdowns.
• 1st (first touchdown): Probability that the player scores the first touchdown of the game.

NFL player props and player projections

Sportsbooks and prediction markets set player-prop lines and prices using their own models, market information, and trading decisions. Our projections give you a separate number to compare with the posted line.

The projections above cover many of the same statistics offered as NFL player props, including passing yards, completions, rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns.

Three ways to use the projections when researching player props:

• Compare a projection with the line: Put our projected stat alongside the sportsbook's posted line and consider the size of the difference, the price, and the probability behind the projection.
• Research touchdown props: Use the 1+ probability to see how our model rates a player's chance of scoring, then compare that probability with the implied probability in the available price.
• React to team news: Injuries, depth-chart changes, and game-day inactives can change a player's expected workload and move the projection.

Our NFL Player Projections are our NFL prop model's full projections across all categories. For player props where Dimers has identified the strongest opportunities, see our Best NFL Player Props. You can also use our NFL Trends to check recent player performance.

Anytime touchdown scorer projections

The Touchdown 1+ column shows our model's probability that a player scores at least one touchdown during the game. The 2+ and 3+ columns cover multiple-touchdown outcomes, while 1st represents the probability of scoring the game's opening touchdown.

Sort the table by the 1+ column to see which players have the highest projected chance of scoring. For betting research, compare that probability with the implied probability represented by a sportsbook or prediction market price rather than treating the projection as a guarantee.

NFL fantasy football projections, rankings, and DFS 

The same player projections above can be used for fantasy football rankings and DFS research. Sort by PPR or half-PPR points to compare players according to your league's scoring format, or sort by an individual stat to focus on a particular position or category.

• Fantasy football rankings: Sort projected PPR or half-PPR points to compare players on the current week's slate.
• Start and sit decisions: Compare players' projected production for the same week rather than relying on rankings that have not changed since the preseason.
• Waiver wire and sleepers: Sort projected points within a position to find players whose expected production has changed as workloads and team situations evolve.
• DFS lineups: Compare projected fantasy points with player salaries to identify players whose expected output may be high or low relative to their cost.
• Fantasy football projections: Use the underlying passing, rushing, receiving, and touchdown projections to build your own weekly rankings or fantasy football cheat sheet.
• CSV analysis: Download the projection table as a CSV file to sort, filter, analyze, or use in your own spreadsheet or lineup-building tools.

How we build our NFL player projections

Dimers builds its NFL player projection models in-house. Our data scientists and sports analysts collect and analyze the underlying data rather than simply reproducing an aggregated projection from another source.

There is no single projection model. We use a family of specialized models, with separate models for the different stat columns on the table. Each model combines information from multiple underlying models to produce its projection.

Our models consider factors including:

• Player performance data: Historical NFL statistics covering completions, passing yards, rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns.
• Player usage: Historical workload, touches, targets, and other indicators of how players are being used.
• Play-by-play data: Detailed game data that helps identify patterns in player production and usage.
• Matchup: How opposing defenses have performed against different positions and offensive schemes.
• Game script: Expected game conditions and coaching tendencies that can affect offensive workload and opportunities.
• Team and player news: Injuries, depth-chart changes, and other developments that can change expected playing time or workload.

A projection is an expected outcome, not a prediction of an exact stat line. A player projected for 62 receiving yards will finish above and below that figure across individual games. The value of a projection comes from using the number consistently across a large number of players and games.

How often do NFL player projections update

Our NFL player projections update daily as relevant team information becomes available.

The factors most likely to change a projection include:

• Injury reports and practice participation: Changes in player availability can alter expected workload.
• Depth-chart changes: A player moving up or down the depth chart can change projected snaps, touches, or targets.
• Game-day inactives: Official inactive lists can reallocate expected opportunities to other players.
• Late team news: Confirmed changes to lineups or player roles can affect projections before kickoff.

Because player situations can change during the week, the projection you see earlier in the week may differ from the projection closer to kickoff.

Get every NFL player projection with Dimers Pro

Projections for the top 3 players are free for everyone, every day.

For the full NFL player projections table, you need Dimers Pro.

Unlocking the full experience gives you access to: 

• Full player coverage: Projections for offensive players across all 32 NFL teams, including quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and other offensive players covered by our models.
• CSV export: Download projection data for spreadsheet analysis, DFS research, or your own models.
• Research tools: Use Dimers' projection and betting tools on desktop and in the Dimers iOS/Android app.
• Dimebot AI assistant: Skip the scroll and get the answer straight from the source.
• Private Discord: Connect with other bettors and Dimers experts.
• 15,000+ events annually: Access picks, props, parlays, and other sports betting tools across major sports.

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Explore our full suite of NFL betting tools

NFL player projections are one part of Dimers' broader NFL betting toolkit:

• NFL Predictions: Daily NFL probabilities and picks for every game all season long.
• NFL Best Bets: Top daily +EV NFL plays based on probability and price.
• NFL Prop Bets: Best daily NFL player props powered by projections and matchup data.
• NFL Parlays: Generate automatic NFL parlays with high-upside multi-legs.
• NFL Odds: Compare all NFL lines from major sportsbooks with instant odds shopping.
• NFL Trends: Track NFL player hot and cold streaks to help with prop betting.
• NFL Futures: Probabilities and odds for long-term NFL outright bets.
• NFL News: Daily NFL match previews and exclusive picks from our experts.

Responsible gambling

An elite QB doesn't force the ball into double coverage, and sharp bettors don't force bets to make up for losses. If you're using NFL player projections to inform a bet, set deposit and wager limits before you start and understand the risks.

If you or someone close to you is experiencing gambling problems, our responsible gambling resources can provide further information and support.