The three players who will dominate their matchups in NFL Week 9

After looking at some of last week's toughest matchups for NFL betting, we're going the other way and looking at some of the best on the board for NFL player props in Week 9, led by Rams WR Puka Nacua against the Washington Commanders.

Using the Dimers NFL player projections, we're analyzing three matchups in Week 9: Nacua's No. 1 overall WR upside, an RB who gets the NFL’s worst run defense, and a quarterback who has turned a corner in recent weeks and draws one of the most favorable passing defenses in the league.

Puka Nacua (Rams)

Game: Rams @ Commanders

Nacua has the highest projected receiving total of any wide receiver on the Week 9 slate at 97.7 yards. He’s also one of only three receivers the model gives better than a 50% chance to score a touchdown, along with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ja’Marr Chase.

He's absorbing targets with Davante Adams out, seeing double-digit looks in both games since Adams went down, scoring in both. Washington has allowed 15 passing touchdowns this season, and if you exclude their cupcake matchup with Eagles backup Tanner McKee, that's 2.5 per game.

Puka Nacua ranks at the top of our WR projections in Week 9.

Fellow top-projected WR Jaxon-Smith Njigba tallied 128 yards and 2 TDs on 10 catches against this Commanders team earlier this season, and Nacua could be headed for a game like that if Washington shows the same competitiveness they did in that one.

Our Rams vs. Commanders prediction gives Los Angeles a sizable 64.7% win probability, but projects a 26-22 final, with Washington covering the 5.5-point spread 54.6% of the time in our simulations. If this stays a one-score game, the Rams can’t take their foot off the gas.

Jonathan Taylor (Colts)

Game: Colts @ Cowboys

Last week was a setback for Taylor. He had a season-low eight carries in a blowout loss to Jacksonville, with an important caveat: the Jaguars have the league's No. 2 rushing defense. This week’s opponent is the opposite. Dallas has the league’s worst rushing defense, having allowed 1,222 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.

The Cowboys have also given up multiple touchdowns to a single running back three times: Derrick Henry, Bucky Irving and most recently, Tyler Allgeier, with Allgeier breaking off runs of 50+ and 60+ yards against them last week.

Jonathan Taylor's TD predictions against the Cowboys.

Daniel Jones has struggled at quarterback and may not take advantage of Dallas’ weaker pass defense either, which makes it more likely the offense goes through Taylor.

The Dimers model gives Taylor a 56.6% chance to score and projects him for 65.9 rushing yards and 19.6 receiving yards. He’s gone over 20 receiving yards five times this season, and that line is priced at plus money. At 20.4%, he’s also our seventh-most likely player to score two or more touchdowns this week.

With the trade deadline approaching and Jonathan Taylor one of the biggest names on the trade block, this is the Colts' last chance to jack up their asking price with a big game in an exploitable spot.

Malik Willis (Dolphins)

Game: Dolphins vs. Lions

Willis is playing his best football of the season. He has thrown for 200+ yards and two touchdowns in back-to-back games for the first time this year, and Miami has posted its three highest-scoring games over the last three weeks.

Detroit is a good opponent to keep that going. The Lions have allowed the third-most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns (18) in the NFL, and they just gave Kyler Murray his first two-touchdown game of the season.

The model’s projections around Willis point toward a pass-heavy game for Miami, with plenty of value in our NFL player props. We give Willis a 57.1% chance to go over 27.5 pass attempts, with strong leans toward running back Ollie Gordon staying under 16.5 rush attempts (65.0%) and under 71.5 rushing yards (62.4%, with a 65.8-yard projection).

Our Lions vs. Dolphins prediction gives Detroit a 73.0% win probability and projects a 28-21 Lions win, so the Dolphins will likely have to pass stay in this one, and Miami’s 21 projected points heavily imply two or three touchdowns.

Among his receivers, Malik Washington (25.0%) and Caleb Douglas (22.0%) are the most likely to score, while TE Greg Dulcich (18.9%) also has an appealing matchup, since Detroit has been the league’s worst defense at keeping tight ends out of the end zone.

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Every single player, team and betting insight in this article comes straight from Dimers Pro, your go-to resource for the NFL season.

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