How to bet on the teams starting backup QBs in NFL Week 9

Five backup quarterbacks take the field across four Week 9 games, shaking up NFL betting markets and throwing higher variance into our NFL player projections.

Shedeur Sanders gets the nod for the Browns in New Orleans, Joe Milton makes his first career start for a 2-6 Eagles team, Gardner Minshew and Drew Lock go head-to-head in Seattle, and Carson Wentz steps in for Kyler Murray on Monday Night Football.

Backups bring a level of uncertainty and unpredictability to a game, so we're using the Dimers NFL predictions data to get a better read on how these fill-ins might perform. Some of them, like Wentz and Lock, have already stepped in and delivered this season, while Sanders and Milton get their first action of 2026.

Let's look at Sanders first.

Shedeur Sanders (Browns)

Game: Browns vs. Saints

Shedeur Sanders starts with Deshaun Watson in concussion protocol, and the Dimers model expects a low-volume day. Sanders completed just 56.6% of his passes as a rookie, with seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and the model projects him for only 179 passing yards.

That ceiling shows up across his receivers. The model sits under the reception line on all three of his top targets:

The offense is projected to run through Quinshon Judkins instead. He leads Cleveland with 62 projected rushing yards and a 42.3% touchdown chance, the best on the team.

Dimers projects a 23-19 Saints win (63.7%), which covers -2.5 and lands just under the 42.5 total. Watch the spread: DraftKings has already moved to Saints -3, so public action could move the Saints into a bigger favorite.

The top factors for our model's prediction on the Saints are the QB situation, Saints team rating and the weakness in the Browns' offense.

Dimers' best angle: Pick your Browns passcatcher to fade. Boston gets the higher probability, while Concepcion lands in our Sweet Spot with more favorable odds.

Joe Milton (Eagles)

Game: Eagles vs. Giants

Joe Milton makes his first NFL start for a 2-6 Eagles team on a six-game skid, replacing Tanner McKee with Jalen Hurts out for the season.

With little to go on for Milton as a starter, the Dimers model sees Philadelphia asking Milton to throw less and but projecting him for an efficient game, projecting under 31.5 attempts with a 61.5% probability, but also for 18.8 completions, around a 63% completion rate. His projection of 214.7 passing yards is a good bit over his line of 189.5 as well.

That matches the only real tape on him: 22 of 29 for 241 yards and a touchdown in relief for the Patriots in the 2024 season finale, and with Saquon Barkley questionable, the run game may not be there.

His upside is dependent on the availability of WR DeVonta Smith. Without Smith, the talent in the WR pool is thin and largely inexperienced aside from TE Dallas Goedert.

Dimers' best angle: Look to the ML and spread on the favored Giants in this game. Joe Milton gets a strong projection from the Dimers model, but unless DeVonta Smith is active, he faces an uphill battle in the passing game.

Drew Lock (Seahawks) and Gardner Minshew (Cardinals)

Game: Seahawks vs. Cardinals

Technically, Gardner Minshew was named the starter, but he finds himself in this situation by way of being a backup, and has yet to start a game this season.

Drew Lock starts for the injured Sam Darnold for the second time this season, playing most of Week 1 in relief as well.

The Seahawks are in the better position, not only because of their great defense, but because we've seen how their offensive funnel changes with Lock under center, and it doesn't.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 277 yards and four touchdowns across two games with Lock this season, including 155 yards and three scores against this Arizona team in Week 2.

JSN is projected for 96 receiving yards and a 54.7% touchdown chance, the highest for a WR in Week 9. His 18.8% multi-TD chance is 9th-highest for any player this week.

For Arizona, Gardner Minshew gets the start after a three-touchdown fourth quarter rallied Arizona to a 33-30 overtime win in Dallas. Our model projects him for 204 yards, with Trey McBride (62 yards, 31.3% touchdown chance) his clear first read, but will face a passing defense on the other end of the spectrum compared to Dallas' weak game.

Dimers' best angle: Two backups and two narrow passing games add up to the model's strongest team-level lean in this group: 36 projected points against a 40.5 total, with a 60% probability of going under.

Carson Wentz (Vikings)

Game: Vikings vs. Bills

The Vikings are 6-1 despite their offense, not because of it. Minnesota allows a league-best 13.3 points per game but ranks 27th in scoring at 20. However, its best offensive day came with Carson Wentz: 39 points at Green Bay in Week 1, nearly double their season average, with Justin Jefferson scoring twice.

Wentz starts Monday night with Kyler Murray out with a hamstring injury, and the matchup favors a repeat. Buffalo has allowed 15 passing touchdowns and 254.7 passing yards per game, the third-most in the league. and our model projects Wentz for 214 passing yards, plus 10 rushing yards.

The switch doesn't hurt Minnesota's playmakers. Justin Jefferson's projection actually ticks up from 79 to 82 receiving yards and a 40.3% touchdown chance, with Wentz over Murray.

Dimers still projects a four-point Bills win, but gives Buffalo a 50.5% chance to cover -3.5. With Wentz in, the model sees this spread as closer to a coin flip, the tightest of the three favorites facing backups this week.

Dimers' best angle: Look for that Week 1 connection to pop up again. Our model loves the value on Jefferson to score a touchdown and against a Bills defense that's allowed 15 passing TDs, one of the league's best WRs is worth a look.

The broader read: Our model loves the favorites against the backups

In the three games where only one team is down to its backup, the Dimers model projects the favorite to cover every time. Each one projects a four-point margin:

Saints -2.5: 60.6% probability, projected 23-19

Giants -3.5: 51.3% probability, projected 21-17

Bills -3.5: 50.5% probability, projected 25-21

In the lone game with two backups, our model sees value on the underdog. Our projected eight-point margin falls just short of the Seahawks -8.5, covering 51.8% of the time and winning outright with a 25.2% probability.

See every game with an edge this week in our NFL Best Bets.

Bet on NFL in 2026 with Dimers Pro

Every single player, team and betting insight in this article comes straight from Dimers Pro, your go-to resource for the NFL season.

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single NFL game this season via Dimers' NFL predictions.

Dimers Pro subscribers can also access recommended bets, edge ratings, Signals, and the best available prices throughout the season with a Dimers Pro football season pass, giving complete access to both NFL and college football, as well as all in-season sports during that time.