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Read Article World Cup Matchday 3: Which teams from Groups A, B and C can advance
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
Here's everything at stake as the final matchday of the World Cup group stage begins and what the Dimers model says about every scenario.
The World Cup group stage begins its final run of matches on Wednesday, June 24 with Groups A, B and C each playing their third and final match of the round. With some teams already eliminated and others playing for first place in their group, there's plenty of World Cup betting action to get into.
After two weeks of matches seeing a daily lineup of two groups, eight teams and staggered kickoffs, we move to a six-game schedule featuring three groups, 12 teams and all four teams from within a group kicking off simultaneously, each match with the best World Cup bets, props and more.
Here is everything at stake when the final whistles blow across Groups A, B, and C as we look ahead to who will win the World Cup:
Group A: Mexico, South Korea, Czechia and South Africa
Standings:
1. Mexico - 6 Points (clinched)
2. South Korea - 3 Points
3. Czechia - 1 Point
4. South Africa - 1 Point
In Group A, Mexico put on a dominant group stage performance and heads into the final matchday as the only team in these three groups already through to the next round. The question now is who joins them.
South Korea sits in the driver's seat for second place with three points and a superior goal differential over the bottom two, meaning a draw against South Africa is all it takes to advance. A win makes it official immediately. The only way South Korea drops out is with a loss, and even then, Czechia would need to do South Korea a disservice by beating Mexico.
MORE: See today's top-projected goalscorers
Czechia and South Africa are locked together on one point apiece, but separated by a single goal in the goal differential column, Czechia at −1 and South Africa at −2. That one-goal gap could be the difference between advancing as runner-up and going home. Czechia needs a win over Mexico and a South Korea stumble to have any chance at second, and would need to protect that thin GD cushion from South Africa all the while. South Africa's route to second runs through South Korea, but even a win might not be enough if Czechia also wins and the goal differential doesn't shift in South Africa's favor.
What the data says in Group A:
South Korea get a 57.6% probability to beat South Africa, compared to just 18.1% for South Africa. We've seen heavier favorites fall short, but the data points to a South Korea advance while South Africa go home.
Mexico are favored vs. Czechia, but at 48.2% compared to 25.1% for the underdog, so it's not outside the realm of possibility for Czechia to steal three points. With Mexico safely in first place and through to the next stage, a conservative game could be in the cards as they aim to stay healthy and card-free.
In either case, the data points to a low-scoring affair, with two best bets in this game, one on the Under 2.5 and the other on Both Teams to Score: No.
Group B: Canada, Switzerland, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Qatar
Standings:
1. Canada - 4 Points
2. Switzerland - 4 Points
3. Bosnia-Herzegovina - 1 Point
4. Qatar - 1 Point
Group B is built around what amounts to a group-winning final between Canada and Switzerland. Both sides are level on four points, and their head-to-head clash will determine who wins the group. The winner claims first place outright; a draw, and whichever team leads on goal differential, Canada at +6 to Switzerland's +3, takes the top spot. A loser likely advances anyway, barring a historically unlikely barrage of goals by the third and fourth place teams.
That's because Bosnia and Herzegovina, remain three points back with a goal differential of −3. To leapfrog either of the top two, they would need to win, see the top-two game produce a result that drops one team, and then somehow overcome a goal differential gap that currently stretches to nine goals against Canada. It is not *impossible* in the mathematical sense, but it is about as close as it gets.
Qatar, meanwhile, has been eliminated and will be playing for pride on the final day. Their only power is as spoilers, denying Bosnia and Herzegovina even a draw, which would at least ensure third place in the group for the Bosnians, but not enough to advance.
What the data says in Group B:
For starters, Bosnia & Herzegovina have a great shot at 3 points and a chance to qualify as a third-place team with a 65.6% win probability vs. Qatar, but will likely need to put up some goals as a negative goal differential will hurt them, hence a 3.5-goal match total, which we put at 61.6% to go under.
Switzerland vs. Canada is the marquee match, with the Swiss at 41.2% to win, but all signs point to a low-scoring affair, namely our goalscorer probabilities maxing out at 23% for Breel Embolo on the Switzerland side and 21% for Jonathan David on Canada.
Switzerland should be playing for a win, but with both teams through on a draw, motivation can't be ignored.
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland and Haiti
Standings:
1. Brazil - 4 Points
2. Morocco - 4 Points
3. Scotland - 3 Points
4. Haiti - 0 Points (eliminated)
Group C is the most wide open of the three. Brazil and Morocco sit level on four points at the top, Scotland trails by just point, while Haiti has already been eliminated without registering a single point.
Brazil needs to handle business against Scotland to feel comfortable, but even victory might not be enough to claim first if Morocco puts together a big result against Haiti and closes the two-goal gap in goal differential. Morocco, for their part, are in an enviable position as they advance with anything better than a loss, and can claim top spot with a win and goals breaking their way. Even an unlikely loss would put them in a good spot for a third-place advancement should Scotland pick up a surprising 3 points.
Scotland are the wild card. Three points puts them in play for a third-place advancement, with a longshot at placing in their group.
A win over Brazil sends them through regardless of what happens in the other game. A draw leaves them at the mercy of Morocco's result. They'll know which way it breaks in real time, as that's the beauty of the simultaneous final matchday.
Haiti enter as the group's only eliminated side, but don't expect Morocco to settle for anything less than a draw.
What the data says in Group C:
Based on double chance (win or draw), Morocco at 93.8% and Brazil at 89.4% look likely to take the top two spots in the group, leaving Scotland either in a solid spot with 4 points or crossing their fingers with 3 and a negative goal differential.
The 3.5 total in Morocco-Haiti is our model's best play, with a 66.9% probability of the under. Despite being eliminated, Haiti has given up 4 total goals through two games.
It's the opposite in Brazil-Scotland, with a 54% probability of the over 2.5, and a 44% chance of Both Teams to Score, which comes with a small edge of 1.6% at best odds of +136 on FanDuel.
Dimers and Responsible Gambling
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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