Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our prediction and analysis for Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid at the La Liga on May 12, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for major markets.
Start your FREE 3-Day trial of Dimers Pro
FINAL
ESP sport icon
LA LIGA
Add this game to My Favorites
FINAL
Add this game to My Favorites
ESP sport icon
LA LIGA
Atletico Madrid
2
1
May 12, 7:30PM Estadio El Sadar
Osasuna
May 12, 7:30PM Estadio El Sadar
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
OsasunaOSA
Score Summary
Atletico MadridATM
K. Barja (90')
Soccer ball icon
A. Lookman (pen.) (15')
Soccer ball icon
A. Sorloth (71')
Soccer ball icon
M. Llorente (79')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
OSA
0.0%
Draw
0.0%
ATM
100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Osasuna by K. Barja, assisted by R. Garcia
2-1
90'
Yellow Card
F. Boyomo (Osasuna) cautioned
85'
Yellow Card
R. Le Normand (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
85'
Yellow Card
A. Catena (Osasuna) cautioned
83'
Yellow Card
D. Simeone (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
82'
Substitution
Substitution for Atl. Madrid: C. Lenglet replaces A. Lookman
79'
Red Card
M. Llorente (Atl. Madrid) sent off for a second yellow card
72'
Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: A. Oroz replaces L. Torro
72'
Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: A. Osambela replaces M. Gomez
71'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Sorloth, assisted by M. Llorente
2-0
60'
Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: R. Garcia replaces R. Garcia
60'
Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: A. Bretones replaces J. Galan
59'
Yellow Card
M. Pubill (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
57'
Yellow Card
Koke (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
57'
Yellow Card
K. Barja (Osasuna) cautioned
52'
Yellow Card
M. Llorente (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Atl. Madrid: A. Sorloth replaces T. Almada
45'
Yellow Card
A. Budimir (Osasuna) cautioned
37'
Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: K. Barja replaces R. Moro
30'
Yellow Card
R. Garcia (Osasuna) cautioned
18'
Substitution
Substitution for Atl. Madrid: R. Le Normand replaces R. Mendoza
15'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Lookman (pen.)
1-0
14'
Yellow Card
J. Galan (Osasuna) cautioned

Best Sportsbook Promotions

Swipe iconSwipe across to view more offers
logo
RECOMMENDED
Double Your Winnings on your Next 10 Wagers. Up to $25 Max Bet Per Boost
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
RECOMMENDED
Deposit $20, Get $20 in Trading Bonus!
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
NEW PLAYERS
Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins!
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
LIMITED-TIME
Register with code DIMERS150 to unlock $150 in bonus bets by winning your first $10 bet
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
FEATURED
New DraftKings Customers: Bet $5+ Get $100 in Bonus Bets Instantly!
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
NEW PLAYERS
Bet $5 Get $150 If Your Bet Wins!
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
RECOMMENDED
Trade to get up to $100 in Bonuses!
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
TRENDING
Bet $10 Get $200 Win or Lose
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
NEW PLAYERS
Get Up To $250 Back in Bonus Bets If Your First Bet Loses
T&Cs apply.
How to claim

Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid: Detailed breakdown

Dimers' Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid prediction is generated using an international soccer rating framework applied consistently across all La Liga matches. Each output is built on proprietary features and maintained throughout the tournament to ensure reliable and current projections.

Match overview

  • Teams: Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid
  • Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026
  • Time: 3:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio El Sadar
  • Tournament: La Liga

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Osasuna +165, Atletico Madrid +165, draw +260
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-120/+102)

Dimers' win probabilities

  • Osasuna: 36.1%
  • Atletico Madrid: 38.0%
  • Draw: 25.8%

These probabilities are generated using a rating system designed specifically for international soccer. The model evaluates past performance, opponent strength, expected player involvement, and other underlying signals to estimate each team's chance of winning, drawing, or losing.

Projected score

The most likely correct score for this matchup is Osasuna 1-1 Atletico Madrid, with a probability of 12%.

Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.

Our prediction: Who wins?

Osasuna is the most likely winner of this matchup with a 36.1% probability, while Atletico Madrid sits at 38.0%, with the draw at 25.8%.

For full access to La Liga predictions, probabilities, and tools such as La Liga best bets across every match, Dimers Pro unlocks the complete experience.

Summary

Dimers' Osasuna vs. Atletico Madrid prediction is grounded in repeatable logic—not headlines or hunches. This matchup-level analysis also feeds into our broader tournament coverage, including who will win the La Liga and the latest La Liga news.

Bet responsibly and within your limits. For support, see our responsible gambling resources.