NHL Player Props

Today's best NHL player props

A dozen NHL games on a Tuesday in the regular season can mean hundreds of player props, with most priced close to where the market expects them to be.

The more intriguing ones aren't always the biggest names. A sportsbook or prediction market may move quickly when Nathan MacKinnon's market draws heavy action, while a third-line winger's shots or points line gets far less attention. Across an entire slate, those quieter markets can be harder to assess at a glance.

That's where the table above comes in. It brings together the NHL player props and our model rates for today's games, showing the player, market, sportsbook or prediction market price, model probability, and edge rating. The probability shows how likely our model believes the prop is to hit, while the edge shows the gap between that probability and the price on offer.

The board covers the day's NHL slate and updates as new information comes in, including confirmed lineups.

Who is most likely to score a goal tonight?

Anytime goal scorer is one of the most popular NHL player props, and it's one of the markets our model analyzes closely.

Rather than focusing on a single name, the table shows every skater on tonight's slate alongside our model's probability of scoring. Those probabilities reflect the context the analysis considers for each player, including their line role, power-play usage, the opposing defense and goaltender, recent form, and the typical number of goals allowed by the opponent.

First goal scorer is a different market with a different probability. Early line deployment and offensive-zone starts become more important, which means a player can have a strong chance of scoring at some point during the game without being among the top candidates to score first.

What are NHL player props?

NHL player props are bets on what an individual player does during a game rather than on which team wins. On Dimers, the main player prop markets are anytime goal scorer, first goal scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists.

Goal scorer markets use straight odds: if Sam Reinhart is +180 to score, the bet wins if he scores at any point in the game. Shots on goal, points, and assists are generally priced as over/under markets, where you're betting on whether a player clears a specific line.

Player props give you another way to bet on an NHL game beyond the moneyline, puck line, and total. While major game markets can move quickly with betting action and new information, individual player props can react differently depending on the player and market.

Dimers' NHL Best Player Props highlights the props our model identifies as having positive expected value (+EV), based on the probability we assign to each outcome and the price available.

What NHL prop markets does Dimers cover?

Our betting model focuses on the most popular NHL player props:

• Anytime goal scorer: Wagers on whether a player will score a goal at any point during the game. This typically includes top forwards or high-usage defensemen who log significant minutes and play on power-play units. Each matchup is simulated 10,000 times to estimate how often a player finds the net; e.g., if Leon Draisaitl scores in 3,800 simulations, he's given a 38% chance to score anytime.
• First goal scorer: Bets on which player will score the opening goal of the game. Influenced by early-game line deployment, offensive zone starts, and matchup strength against the opposing defense. If a player scores first in 1,000 of 10,000 simulations, he's rated as a 10% chance.
• Player shots on goal: Focuses on how many shots a player will register on net during the game. Favors high-volume shooters, players on top lines, or those heavily involved in the power play.
• Player points: Wagers on whether a player will record at least one point (goal or assist) during the game. Points measure overall offensive contribution, capturing both goal-scoring and playmaking ability.
• Player assists: Wagers on whether a player will record an assist at any point during the game, i.e., passing the puck in a way that directly leads to a goal. This type of bet usually targets playmakers or high-ice-time forwards and defensemen who run power-play units.

You can stack your odds using the NHL Parlay Picker and combine multiple player props for a bigger payout.

How Dimers finds the best NHL prop bets today

Dimers uncovers edges in NHL prop markets using data and machine learning. The NHL player props model is loaded with millions of data inputs, then simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate the likelihood of prop outcomes.

If Leon Draisaitl scores in 3,800 of those 10,000 runs, we make him a 38% chance to score anytime. If he scores first in 1,000 of them, he has a 10% chance to open the scoring. Points and assists work the same way. Shots on goal are projected rather than simulated and land at a probability by a different route.

Our NHL player prop model and game simulator take into account the specific details for each player:

• Expected usage: How much a player is projected to be on the ice and in what role.
• Lineup ins and outs: Updated as that information becomes available.
• The opponent: Who a player is facing, and whether he is at home or on the road.
• Team scoring: How many goals his team is expected to score and concede in the game.

Whether it's Macklin Celebrini to score a goal, Nathan MacKinnon to open the scoring, Brady Tkachuk to pile up shots on goal, or Connor McDavid to rack up points and assists, every NHL prop bet on Dimers is fueled by advanced analytics. Like "Moneyball," but for hockey.

Find out more about how Dimers uses data for sports betting.

How to read an NHL prop probability

A probability is only useful next to a price, so here is the arithmetic.

A +200 anytime goal scorer needs to hit about 33% of the time to break even. If our model has that player at 38%, the price is on your side. If it has him at 29%, it is not, however good he looked last night. An over at -110 needs about 52.4%.

Two things worth knowing before you use the numbers:

• A probability is not a prediction: A player rated 38% to score will fail to score in most games. That is what 38% means. Props pay out over a season, not over a night.
• Shop the price: Prop prices differ between sportsbooks and prediction markets far more than moneylines do, because each book sets them with less information and corrects them more slowly. A +200 at one book and +240 at another is the difference between a bet worth making and one that is not.

Unlock every NHL player prop with Dimers Pro

Three NHL player props are free every day.

Join Dimers Pro to reveal all NHL player props:

• Every NHL player prop on the slate: Across all five markets, instead of the free view.
• Sorting and filtering by edge: Cut straight to the mispriced props rather than reading down a list of favorites.
• High Edge, Sweet Spot, and Caution signals: Each prop is flagged with prices our model rates as strongest and those it flags for reconsideration.

You also gain access to the full Dimers experience:

• Real-time research tools: Access on desktop or the iOS/Android app.
• Dimebot AI assistant: Get instant answers powered by Dimers' data.
• Private Discord: Connect with other bettors and Dimers experts.
• 15,000+ events annually: Picks, props, parlays, and more across major sports.

Make the coldest bets on the ice by becoming a member today.

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Discover more NHL betting tools

Our NHL Props are one part of the slate. For more betting angles and strategies, see Dimers' complete lineup of tools for sharper NHL betting:

• NHL Predictions: Daily NHL probabilities and picks for every game all season.
• NHL Props: Best daily NHL player props for goal scorers, shots, points, and assists.
• NHL Trends: Track NHL prop hit streaks with prop sample sizes.
• NHL Parlays: Build automatic NHL parlays with high-upside multi-leg picks.
• NHL Odds: Compare NHL betting lines with instant odds shopping.
• NHL Futures: Probabilities and odds for outright NHL Championship bets.
• NHL News: Daily NHL game previews and betting tips from our experts.

New to betting on hockey? Our NHL betting strategies guide covers how to get started.

Responsible gambling for NHL

Props make it easy to bet more often than you planned, because a single game carries dozens of them and there is always another name on the list. Set a limit before puck drop and stay inside it. Treat a losing prop as money spent rather than something to win back on the next period, and only bet what you can afford to lose.

If gambling is causing harm for you or someone close to you, our responsible gambling page has support services and self-exclusion options.