Paraguay vs. Australia prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Group Stage]
Get Paraguay vs Australia predictions for World Cup 2026 Thursday.
World Cup 2026 action continues on Thursday at 10:00 PM ET as Australia locks horns with Paraguay in Group D at Levi's Stadium.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced World Cup 2026 model predicts Paraguay as the most likely winner of the Paraguay vs. Australia game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Paraguay vs. Australia prediction: Who will win?
Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 38.5% chance of Paraguay winning, a 30.0% chance for Australia, and a 31.6% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 1.5 goals has a 57.0% chance of going over, with a 62.4% likelihood of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, Paraguay holds a 26.9% probability to win without conceding, with Australia at 20.7%.
For bettors looking to cover multiple possibilities, the most likely double chance result is Paraguay to win or draw at 70.0%.
Australia vs. Paraguay odds
We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Paraguay | Australia | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +175 | +333 | +130 |
Total Goals
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|
| -150 | +128 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Paraguay vs. Australia picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Australia @ +333 via BetMGM
- Total Goals: Under 1.5 @ +128 via FanDuel
- Win to Nil: Australia @ +475 via BetMGM
- Both Teams To Score: No @ -140 via DraftKings
According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Australia to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Although they are not the most likely winner of the match, the edge provided on Australia's odds provide the best value right now.
Paraguay vs. Australia: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-0 Paraguay win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Paraguay 1-0 Australia | 15.3% |
| Paraguay 0-0 Australia | 14.8% |
| Paraguay 1-1 Australia | 13.4% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 37.6% chance of both sides finding the net and a 62.4% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Paraguay vs. Australia player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Thursday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Paraguay-Australia:
Paraguay
- Gabriel Avalos: 17.2% probability
- Julio Enciso: 16.8% probability
- Matias Galarza: 11.3% probability
- Mauricio : 11.2% probability
- Diego Gomez: 10.4% probability
Australia
- Mohamed Toure: 16.3% probability
- Nestory Irankunda: 13.8% probability
- Conor Metcalfe: 9.0% probability
- Harry Souttar: 6.5% probability
- Jordan Bos: 5.4% probability
Paraguay vs. Australia game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's FIFA World Cup game between Paraguay and Australia at Levi's Stadium is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Paraguay vs. Australia
- Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Levi's Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, Paraguay has a 38.5% win probability on Thursday, Australia has a 30.0% win probability, and there is a 31.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
