Japan vs. Sweden prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Group Stage]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's World Cup 2026 matchup between Japan and Sweden, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 47.5% chance of Japan winning, a 28.5% chance for Sweden, and a 24.0% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 56.2% chance of going over, with a 58.1% probability that both teams find the net. In the win to nil market, Japan holds a 23.3% probability to win without conceding, with Sweden given a 13.3% chance.

For bettors looking to cover multiple outcomes, the most likely double chance result is a win for either Japan or Sweden at 76.0%.

Sweden vs. Japan odds

We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Japan	Sweden	Draw
+140	+220	+240

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-110	+100

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Japan vs. Sweden picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Japan @ +140 via DraftKings
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -110 via BetMGM
• Win to Nil: Japan @ +300 via BetMGM
• Double Chance: Japan or Sweden @ -310 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: Yes @ -145 via BetMGM

According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Japan to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

As well as being the most likely winner of the game, the edge provided on Japan's odds also provide the best value for bettors.

Japan vs. Sweden: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
Japan 1-1 Sweden	11.2%
Japan 2-1 Sweden	9.4%
Japan 1-0 Sweden	9%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 58.1% chance of both sides finding the net and a 41.9% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Japan vs. Sweden player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Thursday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Japan-Sweden:

Japan

• Ayase Ueda: 27.0% probability
• Daizen Maeda: 18.6% probability
• Keito Nakamura: 17.2% probability
• Ritsu Doan: 14.3% probability
• Daichi Kamada: 12.2% probability

Sweden

• Viktor Gyokeres: 23.3% probability
• Alexander Isak: 20.9% probability
• Anthony Elanga: 13.0% probability
• Alexander Bernhardsson: 8.8% probability
• Elliot Stroud: 8.7% probability

Japan vs. Sweden game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's FIFA World Cup game between Japan and Sweden at AT&T Stadium is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Japan vs. Sweden
• Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: AT&T Stadium

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

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Conclusion

According to our computer model, Japan has a 47.5% win probability on Thursday, Sweden has a 28.5% win probability, and there is a 24.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.