World Cup Golden Boot Odds, Projections and Darkhorses

Erling Haaland (Norway) | 4 goals (+850)

Haaland has been sensational in his first-ever World Cup, scoring twice in each of his two group appearances, including a memorable brace to help Norway past Senegal.

However, with Norway having already secured their place in the knockout rounds, Haaland is expected to be rested for the final group game.

That absence, combined with his two-goal deficit to Messi, explains his longer odds, though if he hits form in the knockouts and Norway can make a run, he's as dangerous a finisher as anyone in the field.

With a 61.8% chance to reach the Round of 16, Haaland and Norway should see more chances to rack up goals.

Harry Kane (England) | 2 goals (+900)

Kane enters his final group game with the best single-match scoring projection in the final group stage games of any active Golden Boot contender, with Dimers Pro giving him a 52.7% chance to find the net and a 17.5% chance of scoring twice.

The problem is the gap in the board, Kane sits three goals behind Messi after a disappointing goal-less draw with Ghana, meaning he'd likely need something exceptional just to get back into contention.

At +900, he's a long shot, but his elite scoring probability in this match, and a 53.1% probability for England to reach the quarterfinals, makes him an interesting target.

Vinicius Junior (Brazil) | 4 goals (+1000)

Vini Jr. has been one of the breakout stars of the tournament, scoring four goals across three group matches, including a brace against Scotland, and also contributing an assist, which could serve as a crucial tiebreaker if players finish level on goals.

Brazil have wrapped up the group stage and Vinicius heads straight into knockout action vs. Japan, where Dimers gives him a 28.3% chance to score anytime and a 4.3% shot at a multi-goal game. He trails Messi by one goal and needs to stay hot, but at +1000 he's the best value on the board for anyone who believes Brazil have a deep run in them.

MORE: Japan vs. Brazil match predictions

The Darkhorses

Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) | 2 goals (+2200)

Not the name you think of when you hear "darkhorse", and at 41 years old, Ronaldo is playing in what is widely expected to be his final World Cup, and though he's a top name and all-time legend, he's a distant sixth behind the top five contedners.

With two goals on the board and a 34.7% chance to add to his tally in the final group game, he's a realistic scorer, though his 6.2% brace probability and three-goal deficit to the lead make a Golden Boot charge a long shot without a blistering run through the knockout rounds.

Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain) | 2 goals (+3300)

Spain's clinical finisher has quietly put together a solid group stage with two goals, and we give him a 29.5% chance of adding more in the final group match. Oyarzabal is a composed, technically gifted striker who tends to peak in big moments, and if Spain make a deep run, which our top probability to win it all at 17.8% indicates i highly likely, he could accumulate numbers quickly.

At two goals behind the second-place spot right now, he's a true longshot for the Boot, but poised for a deeper run than those above him on the board like Ronaldo and Kane.

Brian Brobbey (Netherlands) | 3 goals (+4000)

Brobbey has emerged as a powerful presence for the Netherlands, tallying three goals through the group stage and heading into the knockouts as a physically dominant option up front.

We project him at 21.9% to score in the Netherlands match vs. Morocco in the knockout stage, with a 2.3% multi-goal probability.

He needs a hot start to the knockout rounds to seriously threaten the leaders, but three goals already banked means he's well-positioned if the Dutch go on a run, which could be in the cards with a 48% chance to reach the quarterfinals, sixth-best of all teams.

Jonathan David (Canada) | 3 goals (+5000)

David delivered a hat-trick against Qatar in the group stage to announce himself as a darkhorse Golden Boot contender on home soil.

Dimers Pro gives him a 30% chance of scoring in Canada's first knockout match vs. South Africa the highest anytime probability of any player with projections for the next round on this list, and a 4.4% shot at a brace.

He's still two goals back from the top, but his high-scoring probability and Canada's motivated home crowd make him one of the most compelling value plays in the field, especially as heavy 55.6% favorites vs. South Africa.

Ismael Sabiri (Morocco) | 3 goals (+5500)

Saibari has been a revelation for Morocco, scoring in each of his three group appearances and heading into the knockout stage with three goals to his name.

His per-game scoring probability drops in knockout competition at just 17.8% to score anytime in his next match vs. the Netherlands, but the raw goal total already puts him in the conversation. He's two goals off the pace but could move quickly with a strong knockout opener.

One of Sabiri or Brobbey will be heading home, and if the player on the winning team picks up a goal, expect his odds to drop significantly.

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