May 17, 2026
Best WNBA bets today: Sunday's picks include Sky vs. Lynx play [5/17/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, May 17, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/17.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, May 17, 2026—are live with the Pacers' Kelsey Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Mitchell, Chennedy Carter and A'ja Wilson lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 17, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 14.5% |
| Chennedy Carter (Aces) | 14.4% |
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 13.9% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 13.9% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 13.8% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 13.0% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 12.1% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 12.1% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 12.0% |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky) | 11.7% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 11.4% |
| Grace VanSlooten (Storm) | 11.3% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 11.2% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 11.1% |
| Rickea Jackson (Sky) | 10.8% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 10.4% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 10.4% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 10.3% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 10.1% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 9.8% |
| Kelsey Plum (Sparks) | 9.5% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 9.4% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 9.4% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 9.3% |
| Brittney Sykes (Tempo) | 9.2% |
| Te-Hina Paopao (Dream) | 9.1% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 8.5% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 8.4% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 8.3% |
| Nia Coffey (Lynx) | 8.1% |
| Erica Wheeler (Sparks) | 8.0% |
| Nyara Sabally (Tempo) | 7.9% |
| Stefanie Dolson (Storm) | 7.8% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 7.7% |
| Laura Juskaite (Tempo) | 7.6% |
| Monique Billings (Fever) | 7.6% |
| Gabriela Jaquez (Sky) | 7.4% |
| Jacy Sheldon (Sky) | 7.2% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.3% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.3% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 17, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 3.0% | +1000 | 12.0% |
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 2.1% | +900 | 12.1% |
| Rae Burrell | Sparks | 1.7% | +1400 | 8.4% |
| Erica Wheeler | Sparks | 0.9% | +1300 | 8.0% |
| Sophie Cunningham | Fever | 0.6% | +1300 | 7.7% |
| Jacy Sheldon | Sky | 0.5% | +1400 | 7.2% |
| Kelsey Mitchell | Fever | 0.2% | +600 | 14.5% |
| Natasha Howard | Lynx | 0.1% | +800 | 11.2% |
| Chelsea Gray | Aces | 0.0% | +1500 | 6.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/17.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, May 17, 2026, Kelsey Mitchell, Chennedy Carter and A'ja Wilson lead our first basket projections, while Natisha Hiedeman shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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