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Leeds vs. Burnley Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our prediction and analysis for Leeds vs. Burnley at the Premier League on May 1, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for major markets.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Burnley
1
3
May 1, 7PM Elland Road
Leeds
May 1, 7PM Elland Road
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
LeedsLU
Score Summary
BurnleyBUR
A. Stach (8')
Soccer ball icon
N. Okafor (52')
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D. Calvert-Lewin (56')
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L. Tchaouna (71')
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Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
LU
100.0%
Draw
0.0%
BUR
0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Leeds: D. James replaces J. Bogle
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Leeds: W. Gnonto replaces D. Calvert-Lewin
88'
Yellow Card
H. Mejbri (Burnley) cautioned
76'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Z. Amdouni replaces B. Humphreys
76'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: A. Broja replaces Z. Flemming
75'
Yellow Card
E. Ampadu (Leeds) cautioned
72'
Substitution
Substitution for Leeds: B. Aaronson replaces A. Stach
72'
Substitution
Substitution for Leeds: S. Longstaff replaces A. Tanaka
71'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Burnley by L. Tchaouna, assisted by J. Anthony
1-3
68'
VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside
65'
Substitution
Substitution for Leeds: L. Nmecha replaces N. Okafor
65'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Lucas Pires replaces Q. Hartman
65'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Florentino replaces J. Ward-Prowse
56'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Leeds by D. Calvert-Lewin
0-3
54'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: H. Mejbri replaces J. Laurent
52'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Leeds by N. Okafor, assisted by J. Bogle
0-2
48'
Yellow Card
D. Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) cautioned
40'
Yellow Card
J. Rodon (Leeds) cautioned
37'
Yellow Card
L. Tchaouna (Burnley) cautioned
35'
Yellow Card
B. Humphreys (Burnley) cautioned
27'
Yellow Card
P. Struijk (Leeds) cautioned
8'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Leeds by A. Stach, assisted by J. Bijol
0-1

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Leeds vs. Burnley: Detailed breakdown

Dimers' Leeds vs. Burnley prediction is generated using an international soccer rating framework applied consistently across all Premier League matches. Each output is built on proprietary features and maintained throughout the tournament to ensure reliable and current projections.

Match overview

  • Teams: Leeds vs. Burnley
  • Date: Friday, May 1, 2026
  • Time: 3:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Elland Road
  • Tournament: Premier League

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Leeds -250, Burnley +750, draw +400
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-135/+110)

Dimers' win probabilities

  • Leeds: 64.9%
  • Burnley: 14.0%
  • Draw: 21.2%

These probabilities are generated using a rating system designed specifically for international soccer. The model evaluates past performance, opponent strength, expected player involvement, and other underlying signals to estimate each team's chance of winning, drawing, or losing.

Projected score

The most likely correct score for this matchup is Leeds 1-0 Burnley, with a probability of 13%.

Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.

Our prediction: Who wins?

Leeds is the most likely winner of this matchup with a 64.9% probability, while Burnley sits at 14.0%, with the draw at 21.2%.

For full access to Premier League predictions, probabilities, and tools such as Premier League best bets across every match, Dimers Pro unlocks the complete experience.

Summary

Dimers' Leeds vs. Burnley prediction is grounded in repeatable logic—not headlines or hunches. This matchup-level analysis also feeds into our broader tournament coverage, including who will win the Premier League and the latest Premier League news.

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