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Penguins vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Penguins vs. Lightning NHL game on December 4, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
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NHL
Penguins
4
3
Dec 5, 12AM Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Dec 5, 12AM Benchmark International Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Penguins
1214
Lightning
0123
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
PenguinsPIT
Win %
100%
0%
LightningTB
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Penguins
1214
Lightning
0123
P3 19:56 Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 19:53 Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 19:33 Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 19:25 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 19:04 Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Darren Raddysh and Brandon Hagel
P3 19:03 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 18:36 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 18:25 Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Kris Letang
P3 18:24 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 18:12 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 17:17 Goal scored by Evgeni Malkin assisted by Thomas Novak and Anthony Mantha
P3 16:50 Shot on goal by Connor Dewar saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 16:44 Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 15:13 Shot missed by Rutger McGroarty
P3 14:54 Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 14:38 Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 13:28 Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 12:51 Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 12:25 Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 12:10 Shot missed by Bokondji Imama
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:56
SHOT
Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 19:53
SHOT
Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 19:33
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 19:25
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 19:16
Blake Lizotte credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in defensive zone
P3 19:04
Stoppage - Video Review
P3 19:04
GOAL
Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Darren Raddysh and Brandon Hagel
4-4
P3 19:03
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 18:53
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
P3 18:36
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 18:25
SHOT
Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Kris Letang
P3 18:24
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 18:12
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 17:17
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
P3 17:17
GOAL
Goal scored by Evgeni Malkin assisted by Thomas Novak and Anthony Mantha
4-3
P3 16:53
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in defensive zone
P3 16:53
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 16:50
SHOT
Shot on goal by Connor Dewar saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 16:46
Nick Paul won faceoff against Ben Kindel in offensive zone
P3 16:46
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 16:44
SHOT
Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 16:21
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
P3 16:21
Stoppage - Puck in Benches - TV timeout
P3 15:51
Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
P3 15:51
Stoppage - Icing
P3 15:13
SHOT
Shot missed by Rutger McGroarty
P3 14:54
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 14:38
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 13:40
Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Parker Wotherspoon in offensive zone
P3 13:28
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 12:54
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in defensive zone
P3 12:54
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 12:51
SHOT
Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 12:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 12:10
SHOT
Shot missed by Bokondji Imama
P3 11:58
Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
P3 11:58
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
P3 11:55
SHOT
Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 11:44
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
P3 11:44
GOAL
Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Nick Paul and Gage Goncalves
3-3
P3 11:42
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 11:21
SHOT
Erik Karlsson shot blocked by teammate
P3 11:12
Ben Kindel won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
P3 11:12
Stoppage - Icing
P3 09:37
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 09:10
Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Dominic James in offensive zone
P3 09:10
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 09:07
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kevin Hayes saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 09:01
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
P3 08:42
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 08:15
SHOT
Power play - Sidney Crosby shot blocked by teammate
P3 08:07
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 07:09
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
P3 07:09
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 07:06
SHOT
Power play - Evgeni Malkin shot blocked by J.J. Moser
P3 07:00
Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P3 07:00
Stoppage - TV timeout
P3 07:00
Penalty to Charle-Edouard D'Astous 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Evgeni Malkin)
P3 06:58
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Mantha saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 06:45
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 06:39
SHOT
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Anthony Mantha
P3 06:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dominic James saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 05:43
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
P3 05:43
Stoppage - Offside
P3 05:12
SHOT
Power play - Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Connor Clifton
P3 04:57
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
P3 04:43
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 04:20
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by teammate
P3 04:10
Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Ben Kindel in offensive zone
P3 04:10
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 04:08
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 03:50
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Parker Wotherspoon
P3 03:18
Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone
P3 03:18
Penalty to Evgeni Malkin 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by J.J. Moser)
P3 02:50
SHOT
Penguins shot blocked by Ville Koivunen
P3 02:23
SHOT
Ryan Shea shot blocked by Dominic James
P3 01:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ville Koivunen saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 01:17
Ben Kindel won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
P3 01:17
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Darren Raddysh
3-2
P3 01:04
Shorthanded - Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
P3 01:04
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 01:02
Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone
P3 00:13
Kevin Hayes credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
P3 00:03
Kevin Hayes credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in neutral zone
P3 00:00
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:53
Darren Raddysh credited with hit on Rutger McGroarty in defensive zone
P2 19:41
Parker Wotherspoon credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in defensive zone
P2 19:37
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
P2 19:37
Stoppage - Offside
P2 18:46
Dominic James won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in neutral zone
P2 18:46
GOAL
Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Darren Raddysh and Jake Guentzel
3-1
P2 18:33
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 18:22
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
P2 18:22
Stoppage - Offside
P2 18:17
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
P2 18:17
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
P2 18:13
SHOT
Shot missed by Connor Dewar
P2 18:00
Ben Kindel won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
P2 18:00
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 17:58
SHOT
Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Tristan Jarry
P2 17:09
Dominic James won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in defensive zone
P2 17:09
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 16:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Tristan Jarry
P2 15:56
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Connor Clifton
P2 15:48
Shorthanded - Connor Clifton credited with hit on Nikita Kucherov in defensive zone
P2 15:25
SHOT
Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Ben Kindel
P2 15:09
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P2 15:01
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P2 14:02
Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone
P2 14:02
Penalty to Erik Karlsson 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Emil Lilleberg)
P2 14:02
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P2 13:34
SHOT
Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
P2 13:22
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
P2 13:22
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 13:16
SHOT
Shot missed by Nick Paul
P2 12:32
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Tristan Jarry
P2 12:30
Ryan Shea credited with hit on Oliver Bjorkstrand in defensive zone
P2 12:17
Nick Paul won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone
P2 12:17
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 12:15
Power play - Kris Letang credited with hit on Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
P2 12:14
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Tristan Jarry
P2 12:02
SHOT
Power play - Kris Letang shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
P2 11:34
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Kevin Hayes in defensive zone
P2 11:34
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 11:31
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Erik Karlsson
P2 10:28
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Evgeni Malkin saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 10:16
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
P2 10:16
Penalty to Declan Carlile 2 minutes for Interference
P2 09:49
Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
P2 09:49
GOAL
Goal scored by Ben Kindel assisted by Erik Karlsson and Evgeni Malkin
3-0
P2 09:46
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Erik Karlsson
P2 09:37
Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
P2 09:37
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 09:35
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 09:26
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Bryan Rust
P2 09:13
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
P2 09:13
Penalty to Darren Raddysh 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Sidney Crosby)
P2 08:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Curtis Douglas saved by Tristan Jarry
P2 08:28
SHOT
Connor Clifton shot blocked by Max Crozier
P2 08:13
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Graves
P2 08:09
Ben Kindel won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
P2 08:09
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 08:06
SHOT
Shot missed by Ben Kindel
P2 07:53
Nick Paul won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
P2 07:53
GOAL
Goal scored by Evgeni Malkin
2-0
P2 07:20
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Mantha
P2 07:17
Evgeni Malkin won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P2 07:17
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P2 07:16
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 07:07
SHOT
Shot on goal by Parker Wotherspoon saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 06:45
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 06:23
SHOT
Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Tristan Jarry
P2 05:30
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P2 05:03
SHOT
Shot missed by Dominic James
P2 04:03
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 03:36
SHOT
Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P2 02:55
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Thomas Novak in defensive zone
P2 02:55
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 02:53
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 02:19
Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Connor Clifton in neutral zone
P2 02:13
SHOT
Emil Lilleberg shot blocked by Ryan Graves
P2 02:11
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in offensive zone
P2 02:11
Stoppage - Icing
P2 01:44
SHOT
Shot missed by Blake Lizotte
P2 01:15
Shorthanded - Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
P2 01:15
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 00:37
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Connor Dewar
P2 00:03
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Parker Wotherspoon saved by Jonas Johansson
P2 00:00
Shorthanded - Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:36
Power play - Nick Paul won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone
P1 18:33
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Jonas Johansson
P1 18:29
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
P1 18:29
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 18:26
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Jonas Johansson
P1 18:20
SHOT
Shot on goal by Sidney Crosby saved by Jonas Johansson
P1 18:05
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
P1 18:05
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 18:03
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Tristan Jarry
P1 17:30
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P1 17:26
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Ben Kindel in offensive zone
P1 17:26
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P1 17:23
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Tristan Jarry
P1 16:30
SHOT
Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
P1 16:13
SHOT
Shot missed by Sidney Crosby
P1 15:56
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
P1 15:56
Stoppage - Offside
P1 15:45
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Jonas Johansson
P1 13:58
Power play - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone
P1 13:58
Penalty to Ryan Graves 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Dominic James)
P1 13:32
SHOT
Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Tristan Jarry
P1 13:03
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Tristan Jarry
P1 12:57
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Ryan Shea
P1 12:49
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot missed by Bryan Rust
P1 12:24
SHOT
Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Blake Lizotte
P1 12:06
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P1 11:58
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by teammate
P1 11:54
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Nick Paul
P1 11:52
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Tristan Jarry
P1 11:48
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Tristan Jarry
P1 11:14
Shorthanded - Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
P1 10:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Jonas Johansson
P1 09:53
Yanni Gourde credited with hit on Ryan Shea in neutral zone
P1 09:25
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Shea
P1 08:36
Parker Wotherspoon credited with hit on Nikita Kucherov in defensive zone
P1 07:48
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in defensive zone
P1 07:48
Stoppage - Icing
P1 07:41
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in neutral zone
P1 07:41
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
P1 07:13
SHOT
Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
P1 06:34
SHOT
Shot on goal by Declan Carlile saved by Tristan Jarry
P1 06:16
Max Crozier credited with hit on Rutger McGroarty in neutral zone
P1 06:12
Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
P1 06:12
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Ville Koivunen assisted by Kris Letang and Thomas Novak
1-0
P1 05:41
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Tristan Jarry
P1 05:36
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Tristan Jarry
P1 05:25
Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
P1 05:25
Stoppage - Offside
P1 04:59
Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P1 04:59
Penalty to Max Crozier 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Ben Kindel)
P1 04:33
Nick Paul won faceoff against Ben Kindel in offensive zone
P1 04:33
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 04:31
SHOT
Shot missed by Declan Carlile
P1 04:28
Nick Paul won faceoff against Ben Kindel in offensive zone
P1 04:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Tristan Jarry
P1 04:16
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Jonas Johansson
P1 04:00
Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
P1 04:00
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 03:56
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Tristan Jarry
P1 03:15
SHOT
Shot missed by Sidney Crosby
P1 02:36
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in offensive zone
P1 02:36
Penalty to Curtis Douglas 2 minutes for Misconduct
P1 02:24
SHOT
Shot on goal by Parker Wotherspoon saved by Jonas Johansson
P1 01:10
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Tristan Jarry
P1 00:58
SHOT
Shot missed by Evgeni Malkin
P1 00:19
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
P1 00:19
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 00:16
SHOT
Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Tristan Jarry
P1 00:00
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde
P1 00:00
Game Setup.
Stats
Penguins
STATS
Lightning
31Shots on Goal40
54%Faceoff Win %46%
4/2 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 6/1
17Penalty Infraction Mins13
21Hits13
14Shots Blocked4
13Giveaways20
PenguinsPIT
LightningTB
31Shots on Goal40
54%Faceoff Win %46%
4/2 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 6/1
17Penalty Infraction Mins13
21Hits13
14Shots Blocked4
13Giveaways20

Game Prediction Article

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Penguins vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Penguins vs. Lightning
  • Date: Thursday, December 4, 2025
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Penguins +135, Lightning -155

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Penguins: 40%
  • Lightning: 60%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Penguins a win probability of 40%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 60%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Penguins in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Penguins vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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