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Penguins vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Penguins vs. Lightning NHL game on December 4, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
4
3
Dec 5, 12AM Benchmark International Arena
Dec 5, 12AM Benchmark International Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Penguins | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Lightning | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
100%
0%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Penguins | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Lightning | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
P3 19:56 Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 19:53 Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 19:33 Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 19:25 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 19:04 Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Darren Raddysh and Brandon Hagel
P3 19:03 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 18:36 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 18:25 Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Kris Letang
P3 18:24 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 18:12 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 17:17 Goal scored by Evgeni Malkin assisted by Thomas Novak and Anthony Mantha
P3 16:50 Shot on goal by Connor Dewar saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 16:44 Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 15:13 Shot missed by Rutger McGroarty
P3 14:54 Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 14:38 Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 13:28 Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 12:51 Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 12:25 Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 12:10 Shot missed by Bokondji Imama
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
End of 3rd Period.
SHOT
Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
SHOT
Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
Blake Lizotte credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in defensive zone
Stoppage - Video Review
GOAL
Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Darren Raddysh and Brandon Hagel
4-4
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Kris Letang
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Evgeni Malkin assisted by Thomas Novak and Anthony Mantha
4-3
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Connor Dewar saved by Jonas Johansson
Nick Paul won faceoff against Ben Kindel in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Tristan Jarry
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches - TV timeout
Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot missed by Rutger McGroarty
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Jonas Johansson
Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Parker Wotherspoon in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Jonas Johansson
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot missed by Bokondji Imama
Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Nick Paul and Gage Goncalves
3-3
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
SHOT
Erik Karlsson shot blocked by teammate
Ben Kindel won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Tristan Jarry
Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Dominic James in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kevin Hayes saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Power play - Sidney Crosby shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Jonas Johansson
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Evgeni Malkin shot blocked by J.J. Moser
Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage - TV timeout
Penalty to Charle-Edouard D'Astous 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Evgeni Malkin)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Mantha saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Anthony Mantha
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dominic James saved by Tristan Jarry
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Power play - Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Connor Clifton
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by teammate
Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Ben Kindel in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Parker Wotherspoon
Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone
Penalty to Evgeni Malkin 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by J.J. Moser)
SHOT
Penguins shot blocked by Ville Koivunen
SHOT
Ryan Shea shot blocked by Dominic James
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ville Koivunen saved by Jonas Johansson
Ben Kindel won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Darren Raddysh
3-2
Shorthanded - Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone
Kevin Hayes credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
Kevin Hayes credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in neutral zone
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
End of 2nd Period.
Darren Raddysh credited with hit on Rutger McGroarty in defensive zone
Parker Wotherspoon credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in defensive zone
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Dominic James won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Darren Raddysh and Jake Guentzel
3-1
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Jonas Johansson
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
SHOT
Shot missed by Connor Dewar
Ben Kindel won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Tristan Jarry
Dominic James won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Connor Clifton
Shorthanded - Connor Clifton credited with hit on Nikita Kucherov in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Ben Kindel
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone
Penalty to Erik Karlsson 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Emil Lilleberg)
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot missed by Nick Paul
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Tristan Jarry
Ryan Shea credited with hit on Oliver Bjorkstrand in defensive zone
Nick Paul won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Power play - Kris Letang credited with hit on Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Power play - Kris Letang shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Kevin Hayes in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Erik Karlsson
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Evgeni Malkin saved by Jonas Johansson
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
Penalty to Declan Carlile 2 minutes for Interference
Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Ben Kindel assisted by Erik Karlsson and Evgeni Malkin
3-0
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Erik Karlsson
Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Bryan Rust
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
Penalty to Darren Raddysh 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Sidney Crosby)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Curtis Douglas saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Connor Clifton shot blocked by Max Crozier
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Graves
Ben Kindel won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Shot missed by Ben Kindel
Nick Paul won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Evgeni Malkin
2-0
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Mantha
Evgeni Malkin won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Parker Wotherspoon saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
SHOT
Shot missed by Dominic James
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Thomas Novak in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Jonas Johansson
Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Connor Clifton in neutral zone
SHOT
Emil Lilleberg shot blocked by Ryan Graves
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot missed by Blake Lizotte
Shorthanded - Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Connor Dewar
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Parker Wotherspoon saved by Jonas Johansson
Shorthanded - Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
End of 1st Period.
Power play - Nick Paul won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Jonas Johansson
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Sidney Crosby saved by Jonas Johansson
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Ben Kindel in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
SHOT
Shot missed by Sidney Crosby
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Jonas Johansson
Power play - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone
Penalty to Ryan Graves 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Dominic James)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Ryan Shea
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot missed by Bryan Rust
SHOT
Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Blake Lizotte
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Nick Paul
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Tristan Jarry
Shorthanded - Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Jonas Johansson
Yanni Gourde credited with hit on Ryan Shea in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Shea
Parker Wotherspoon credited with hit on Nikita Kucherov in defensive zone
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
SHOT
Shot on goal by Declan Carlile saved by Tristan Jarry
Max Crozier credited with hit on Rutger McGroarty in neutral zone
Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Ville Koivunen assisted by Kris Letang and Thomas Novak
1-0
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Tristan Jarry
Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Penalty to Max Crozier 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Ben Kindel)
Nick Paul won faceoff against Ben Kindel in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot missed by Declan Carlile
Nick Paul won faceoff against Ben Kindel in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Jonas Johansson
Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Shot missed by Sidney Crosby
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in offensive zone
Penalty to Curtis Douglas 2 minutes for Misconduct
SHOT
Shot on goal by Parker Wotherspoon saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Tristan Jarry
SHOT
Shot missed by Evgeni Malkin
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Tristan Jarry
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde
Game Setup.
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 31 | Shots on Goal | 40 | |||
| 54% | Faceoff Win % | 46% | |||
| 4/2 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 6/1 | |||
| 17 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 13 | |||
| 21 | Hits | 13 | |||
| 14 | Shots Blocked | 4 | |||
| 13 | Giveaways | 20 |
| |
|---|
| 31 | Shots on Goal | 40 | |||
| 54% | Faceoff Win % | 46% | |||
| 4/2 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 6/1 | |||
| 17 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 13 | |||
| 21 | Hits | 13 | |||
| 14 | Shots Blocked | 4 | |||
| 13 | Giveaways | 20 |
Game Prediction Article
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Penguins vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Penguins vs. Lightning
- Date: Thursday, December 4, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 6.5
- Moneyline Odds: Penguins +135, Lightning -155
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Penguins: 40%
- Lightning: 60%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Penguins a win probability of 40%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 60%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Penguins in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Penguins vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
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