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Dimers' 2025 College Football Playoff Rankings reveal true probability for each team to win the National Championship
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The final 2025 CFP rankings are out, the bracket is finalized and Dimers’ model reveals each team's true ranking based on our predictions to win the National Championship.
The final College Football Playoff Rankings of 2025 are locked in, and the race for the College Football National Championship is now officially down to twelve teams with the bracket set.
With the CFP officially unveiling its postseason field, fans and bettors finally have the complete picture before the action kicks off with Alabama vs. Oklahoma on December 19.
But while the committee’s Top 12 reflects how the selection committee views each contender, our advanced projections don't necessarily agree with their rankings, even featuring one team that should have gotten a first-round bye according to our model.
By comparing the final CFP rankings to our Dimers Pro championship probabilities, we can see a data-driven look at who’s positioned to make a real run and who may be overseeded or underseeded heading into the playoffs, illustrating why Dimers Pro is a must-have for the college football season.
The official College Football Playoff bracket from NCAA.com
Whether you're evaluating national title futures, handicapping the best college football bets in first-round playoff matchups, or debating which teams truly have a shot at winning it all this side-by-side breakdown should help you get a more accurate read on the postseason landscape.
Dimers' 2025 College Football Playoff Rankings
1. Ohio State (+240)
Championship probability: 26.3%
Right off the bat, our model disagrees with the rankings, putting #2 Ohio State as the most likely national champion thanks to a uniquely elite foundation on both sides of the ball with the top defense in the nation and some of the best QB play out of the playoff teams in Julian Sayin.
Their offensive efficiency (No. 4 in points per drive), combined with a defense that has dominated even ranked opponents, gives the Buckeyes the highest ceiling in the field.
Though the Dimers model says they should be +280 for fair odds, they're the clear top pick by almost 3.0% over the next most-likely champion.
2. Indiana (+290)
Championship probability: 23.4%
Despite finishing the season unbeaten and ranked first overall in the CFP rankings, Indiana ranks just behind Ohio State in Dimers’ title chances, even though they emerged victorious over the same Buckeyes in the Big 10 Championship.
The Hoosiers boast a top-three defense in nearly every efficiency metric, the Heisman favorite in Fernando Mendoza, and the nation’s best third-down offense, giving them appropriately a Top 2 overall probability to win the title.
However, the Dimers model puts them at 23.4% to win it all, which could jump up or down depending on who wins the first-round clash between Alabama and Oklahoma.
For now, we put their fair odds at +325.
3. Georgia (+600)
Championship probability: 12.9%
Georgia’s resurgence down the stretch is fully reflected in Dimers’ third-best odds.
Over the last month, the Bulldogs defended like a vintage title winner, holding opponents to 7.3 points per game and burying Alabama's rushing attack and coasting to a win in the SEC title game.
Earning a first-round bye helps their chances in the long run, of course, and they get as close to fair odds as any team with a bye, thanks to fair odds of +675 according to our 12.9% probability.
4. Oregon (+800)
Championship probability: 10.1%
Things get a little interesting here.
Dimers views fifth-ranked Oregon as a team that belongs in the playoff, despite Texas Tech earning the final spot over them
The nation’s leader in big-play rate raises their championship ceiling higher than most and remains one of the nation's most balanced teams.
Despite a lack of disruptive defensive plays and red-zone vulnerability, they have a 10.1% probability to win, fair odds of +900, likely unaffected by their first-round matchup against #12 JMU.
5. Texas Tech (+900)
Championship probability: 9.2%
Texas Tech’s fourth-place CFP ranking doesn’t quite match their model positioning, as Dimers' prediction puts them outside the bye week teams, but still sees them as a fringe contender.
Their defensive front ranks among the best in America at third in yards per play allowed and an elite first-place rank in yards per carry allowed and the offense has exploded to over 40 points per game with QB Behren Morton playing safe football, throwing just four interceptions this year.
Yet their red-zone touchdown rate (56% success rate to opponents) is one of the worst in the playoffs, a flaw that keeps Tech below the elite tier, but close to fair odds of +985 according to our model.
6. Texas A&M (+1800)
Championship probability: 5.1%
Texas A&M’s profile is built on an offense that has scored 40+ seven times and a defense with the nation’s No. 1 sack rate.
The model sees championship upside thanks to fair odds of +1850 representing just a 0.16% difference in implied probability for the Aggies.
Their problem is volatility with some occasional defensive breakdowns resulting in closer results and an offense that regressed sharply late in the season - only one of those 40+ point outings came in the final month.
With recent performances trending downward, but previous upside on display, A&M lands sixth, still dangerous but no longer peaking.
7. Alabama (+2500)
Championship probability: 3.8%
Dimers once viewed the Crimson Tide as a higher contender, but their fade over the final month drops them to seventh.
Arguably lucky to make the playoffs with 3 losses (depending on which fanbase you're talking to), Bama finds itself with under a 5% probability to win, right around fair odds of +2530 per the Dimers model.
Ty Simpson’s early-season form collapsed and the offense cratered vs. Oklahoma (who they'll face in the first round) and Georgia.
Their defense remains a consistent force, but the model paints Alabama as unlikely to string together multiple high-level offensive performances.
T9. Miami (+2500)
Championship probability: 3.6%
Miami’s balanced statistical profile keeps them competitive and lands them tied just above their CFP ranking of 10th.
They’re top-10 in success rate on both sides of the ball and feature a rebuilt defense that’s been one of the most improved units in the country.
But turnover issues in their two losses and late-game management snafus are red flags for the Hurricanes.
With two losses directly tied to decision-making and a passing game prone to interceptions (25:10 TD:INT ratio for Carson Beck), Miami enters the playoffs as a capable but volatile longshot whose fair odds should be closer to +2700.
T9. Ole Miss (+2500)
Championship probability: 3.6%
Ole Miss shares Miami’s win probability and sits tied at ninth, a bit below their CFP ranking of sixth, taking a hit as they enter without Head coach Lane Kiffin, who's leaving for LSU.
Capable of beating anyone thanks to explosive efficiency on offense and a defense that has 20 points just twice, QB Trinidad Chambliss has led them to one of the most successful passing games this season.
Their firepower gives them upset potential, but they take a hit due to their coaching situation and get fair odds of +2700 just like Miami.
10. Oklahoma (+5500)
Championship probability: 1.7%
Though 8th in the CFP rankings, Oklahoma ranks only 10th in Dimers' championship probabilities because the offense simply doesn’t produce enough scoring opportunities.
They sport the 16th-ranked red zone offense, but they rank 89th in points per drive and 95th in yards per play, needing the defense to set up a short field to find success.
The defense is top-tier, ranking first vs. the run and third in sack rate, and they've beaten Alabama and Tennessee on the road.
But it's not enough to elevate a team whose offense struggles to reach the red zone and the Sooners get a fair price of +5800 to win it all.
T12. James Madison (+75000)
Championship probability: 0.1%
James Madison earns Dimers’ respect for an elite defense. They also mix in enough explosive plays to stay dangerous.
But against the best defensive units, JMU’s offense has produced just 19 PPG, and their reliance on long runs and chunk plays doesn’t translate well to playoff-level competition.
The Dukes can keep games close, but the title odds reflect their uphill climb from the first round.
T12. Tulane (+80000)
Championship probability: 0.1%
Tulane closes the field with a chaos-driven identity that creates turnovers and backfield havoc at a high level. Their defense forces passing downs and attacks relentlessly, and they've cashed a few bet on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.
However, the Green Wave were overpowered by top opponents, losing big to Ole Miss and UTSA.
Against playoff offenses, Tulane’s balanced-but-not-dominant approach leaves them tied for the lowest probability of the group.
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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