5 NFL Week 2 prop bets you can't ignore

From player action to game narratives, these props stand out according to data, matchups and early-season tendencies.

It always seems like Week 2 in the NFL is the week everything settles in at last. Week 1 was crazy; some stars were rusty, underdogs stunned us and half of fantasy football culture lost their minds over lineups. But now we’ve got a little data to work with, and that means the prop betting market starts to open up some real opportunities. If you’re the type who doesn’t just want to bet spreads and totals but loves digging into player props, this week is shaping up nicely.

The best prop bets aren't based on gut feelings, they're built on matchups, usage rates, play-calling tendencies and trend splits. Let's break down five of the most compelling prop bets for NFL Week 2, why they're compelling, and the statistics behind them.

The data behind the picks

What ties all the props below is the use of advanced metrics. We’re talking about air yards, target share, defensive scheme tendencies and red zone usage. These aren’t just “vibes” bets, they’re built on how coaches call plays, how defenses adjust and how players historically perform in similar situations.

For bettors who like to pair wagering with staying plugged into the broader sporting community, the best sites that are also best sports betting app and news source can be an immense timesaver. Not only do they provide real-time odds and prop markets, but they also give the kind of data analysis that encourages bettors to make smarter decisions. Think of it as merging the world of sports coverage with betting insights; you’re not just guessing, you’re making informed picks based on trends and numbers.

1: Justin Jefferson over on receiving yards

Jefferson didn't exactly explode in Week 1 as some projected, but the point is: He was still deeply invested. He had double-digit targets, and the Vikings' O-line still can't really get a run game going. That means Kirk Cousins is going to keep airing it out, and Jefferson is his security blanket.

Sizing up the game, the Vikings are facing a defense that just gave up over 300 yards in the passing game last week. They use a great deal of zone coverage, and Jefferson has consistently burned zone looks; more than 3 yards per route attempt last season. The over is entirely reasonable here, and the numbers are behind it.

2: Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 passing touchdowns

This guy's tough, but just hear him out. Mahomes was not flawless in Week 1, there were some drops and mistakes that cost him big plays, but his underlying numbers were still ridiculous. He threw for nearly 8 yards per attempt and still tested defenses deep.

Week 2 has a plus matchup against a defense that just got blistered in the red zone. Historically, Mahomes has been cashing in Week 2 games as well, averaging over three passing touchdowns in his last four second-week starts. Add to it that Kansas City will be looking to bounce back big-time, and the over on touchdowns makes sense.

3: Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown scorer

Sometimes the "obvious" bet is indeed the right one. McCaffrey was his usual self in Week 1; explosive runs, heavy usage and plenty of red zone opportunities. The 49ers' scheme is built to provide him with touches at the goal line, and this week's matchup cannot get any better.

Their defensive opposite surrendered multiple rushing touchdowns in their opener and struggled with gap awareness. McCaffrey does not need much space to find the end zone, and volume established (20+ touches is all but assured), it is almost programmatic to lay money on him to score.

Jalen Hurts over on rushing attempts

Hurts did not have a monster rush numbers game in Week 1, but that doesn't say it all. He still had designed runs and scrambles when plays were collapsing. Week 2 against a pressure-heavy defense will challenge Hurts to run quite a bit more.

Hurts had around 10 rushes per game last year. With the Eagles' line facing a stout front, we expect him to get the job done with his legs. If the line is set at 8.5 rushes, the over is where we find value.

Garrett Wilson over on receptions

Even with quarterback play that was shaky, at best, Garrett Wilson last season proved that he can get it done regardless of who is under center. In Week 1, he still commanded targets and took advantage of them. The reason to buy him in Week 2 is simple: Volume, as the Jets will be unable to avoid throwing, and Wilson is their clear alpha receiver.

His defense featured several receivers catching 6+ passes in Week 1. If the line is drawn at 5.5 receptions, Wilson is a good bet to go over. The target share (approximately 30%) is simply too large to pass up.

A week to look forward to

NFL Week 2 is a great spot for prop bettors who want to take advantage of early-season inefficiencies. Books are still calibrating lines, players are settling into roles and sharp bettors can find value by leaning on the data.

To recap on the five props well worth a close look this week:

• Justin Jefferson over receiving yards.
• Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 passing touchdowns.
• Christian McCaffrey all-time touchdown scorer.
• Jalen Hurts over rushing attempts.
• Garrett Wilson over receptions

As with everything, the props must be played in control; don't overfill your card, play to the numbers and the stats make the bet. Week 2 is going to be off the charts, and these five bets could be the ticket to going green.