Ducks vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [3/12/2026]

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Anaheim Ducks will lock horns in the NHL at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Maple Leafs a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Ducks.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Ducks vs. Maple Leafs matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Ducks vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Ducks and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Maple Leafs a 52% chance of defeating the Ducks.

According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 72% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 51% chance of staying under.

Ducks vs. Maple Leafs odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Ducks	Maple Leafs
Puck Line	-1.5 (+220)	+1.5 (-270)
Moneyline	-110	-110
Total	o6.5 (-120)	u6.5 (+105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Ducks vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs +1.5	-270
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	-110
Total	Under 6.5	+105

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Ducks vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Ducks vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Ducks vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Matthews a 47.6% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 9.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Anaheim Ducks

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Cutter Gauthier	33.6%
Chris Kreider	31.3%
Beckett Sennecke	29.1%
Leo Carlsson	28.3%
Ryan Poehling	24.5%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	47.6%
William Nylander	44.0%
John Tavares	37.3%
Matthew Knies	30.9%
Matias Maccelli	24.0%

First goal scorer predictions

Anaheim Ducks

Player	First Goal Probability
Cutter Gauthier	6.5%
Chris Kreider	5.8%
Beckett Sennecke	5.2%
Leo Carlsson	5.1%
Ryan Poehling	4.2%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	9.9%
William Nylander	8.8%
John Tavares	7.2%
Matthew Knies	5.7%
Matias Maccelli	4.2%

Ducks vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's game between the Maple Leafs and Ducks at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Anaheim Ducks vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Ducks on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Ducks vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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