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Arkansas State vs. Troy prediction: Why Troy is favored to win men's college basketball matchup [1/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Arkansas State vs Troy predictions for college basketball Saturday.
Men's college basketball action continues on Saturday at 4:33 PM ET as Arkansas State takes on Troy in men's college basketball action at Trojan Arena.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced college basketball model predicts Troy as the most likely winner of the Arkansas State vs. Troy game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.
Arkansas State vs. Troy prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NCAA basketball matchup between Arkansas State and Troy 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives Troy a 61% chance of defeating Arkansas State. Our predicted final score has Troy winning 81-77.
According to our model, Arkansas State (+3.5) has a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the 165.5-point over/under has a 55% chance of staying under.
Arkansas State vs. Troy odds
We have sourced the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Arkansas State | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +144 | -165 |
| Total | o165.5 (-110) | u165.5 (-106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Arkansas State vs. Troy picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas State +3.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Troy | -165 |
| Total | Under 165.5 | -106 |
According to our best men's college basketball bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 165.5 total points.
Arkansas State vs. Troy game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's men's college basketball action between Troy and Arkansas State at Trojan Arena is scheduled to commence at 4:33 PM ET.
- Who: Arkansas State vs. Troy
- Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
- Time: 4:33 PM ET/1:33PM PT
- Venue: Trojan Arena
Conclusion
We predict Troy, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat Arkansas State on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Arkansas State vs. Troy insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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