Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka prediction, odds, picks for WTA Madrid Open 2026

Aryna Sabalenka will face Naomi Osaka in the round of 16 at the WTA Madrid event on Monday.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Aryna Sabalenka as the most likely winner of the Sabalenka vs. Osaka match.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

Sabalenka vs. Osaka prediction: Who will win and advance to the quarterfinals?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's Sabalenka-Osaka women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Sabalenka an 82% chance of winning against Osaka at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.

Additionally, Sabalenka has a 76% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Osaka (+5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 19.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sabalenka vs. Osaka picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: