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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Peyton Stearns prediction, odds, picks for WTA Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Sabalenka vs Stearns predictions for WTA Madrid Open.
Aryna Sabalenka will face Peyton Stearns in the round of 64 at the WTA Madrid event on Thursday.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Aryna Sabalenka as the most likely winner of the Sabalenka vs. Stearns match.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Sabalenka vs. Stearns prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Sabalenka-Stearns women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Sabalenka a 93% chance of defeating Stearns at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Sabalenka has an 87% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Stearns (+6.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 18.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Peyton Stearns odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -2500 | +1500 |
| First Set | -1000 | +600 |
| Game Spread | -6.5 (-118) | +6.5 (-112) |
| Total Games | o18.5 (+105) | u18.5 (-165) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sabalenka vs. Stearns picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Stearns | +1500 |
| First Set | Stearns | +105 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Peyton Stearns to win the first set.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sabalenka vs. Stearns updates and essential details
The WTA Madrid Open match between Aryna Sabalenka and Peyton Stearns is scheduled to start on Thursday at 9:00 AM ET.
- Who: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Peyton Stearns
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Approx. Time: 9:00 AM ET/6:00AM PT
- Tournament: WTA Madrid, Spain Women's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Aryna Sabalenka, with a 93% win probability, will likely beat Peyton Stearns at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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