Orioles vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [4/5/2026]

The Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Baltimore Orioles, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at PNC Park on Sunday, commencing at 1:35 PM ET.

The Pirates will have Braxton Ashcraft (0-1, 3.00 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Orioles will counter with Chris Bassitt (0-1, 8.31 ERA).

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Orioles.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's Orioles vs. Pirates matchup, including best bets and picks.

Orioles vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Orioles and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Pirates a 54% chance of defeating the Orioles.

According to our model, the Orioles (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 51% chance of going over.

Orioles vs. Pirates odds [4/5/2026]

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Orioles vs. Pirates picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: