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Sabres vs. Canadiens prediction: Why Montreal is favored to win Game 4 [2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens predictions for NHL Tuesday.
The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres will meet in Game 4 of the NHL Playoffs at Bell Centre on Tuesday, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Canadiens as the most likely winner of the Sabres vs. Canadiens Game 4 matchup.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Sabres vs. Habs prediction: Who will win Game 4?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NHL Playoffs matchup between the Sabres and Canadiens, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Canadiens a 55% chance of beating the Sabres in Game 4 of the series.
According to our model, the Sabres (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under.
Sabres vs. Canadiens Game 4 odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sabres | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-210) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Moneyline | +120 | -140 |
| Total | o6.5 (+105) | u6.5 (-125) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sabres vs. Canadiens picks and best bet for Game 4
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Sabres +1.5 | -210 |
| Moneyline | Sabres | +120 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -125 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sabres to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sabres vs. Canadiens player props
Who will score a goal in Sabres vs. Canadiens?
According to our model, Tage Thompson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Sabres vs. Canadiens.
Our projections give Thompson a 36.0% chance of scoring a goal at Bell Centre, while the star is a 7.5% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 36.0% |
| Alex Tuch | 31.1% |
| Josh Norris | 27.0% |
| Zach Benson | 24.7% |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 22.0% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 35.5% |
| Nick Suzuki | 26.8% |
| Alex Newhook | 25.5% |
| Ivan Demidov | 22.4% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 21.9% |
First goal scorer predictions
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 7.5% |
| Alex Tuch | 6.1% |
| Josh Norris | 4.7% |
| Zach Benson | 4.4% |
| Jason Zucker | 3.9% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 7.0% |
| Nick Suzuki | 5.2% |
| Alex Newhook | 4.8% |
| Ivan Demidov | 3.9% |
| Alexandre Texier | 3.8% |
Sabres vs. Habs Game 4 updates and essential details
Tuesday's Game 4 between the Canadiens and Sabres in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens
- Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Bell Centre
The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is an elimination tournament in the NHL to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.
A total of 16 teams, including the Sabres and Canadiens, reached the NHL Playoffs 2026, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.
Each round is played as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins progressing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Conclusion
We predict the Canadiens, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Sabres in Tuesday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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