...
...
Read Article
Burnley vs. Aston Villa prediction, odds, Premier League picks [5/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Burnley vs Aston Villa predictions for Premier League Sunday.
Burnley will face Aston Villa in Premier League action at Turf Moor on Sunday, commencing at 9:00 AM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced Premier League model predicts Aston Villa as the most likely winner of the Burnley vs. Aston Villa game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.
Burnley vs. Aston Villa prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's Premier League match between Burnley and Aston Villa, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 19.0% chance of Burnley winning, a 59.4% chance for Aston Villa, and a 21.6% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 57% chance of going over, according to our model.
Burnley vs. Aston Villa odds
We have sourced the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Burnley | Aston Villa | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +500 | -175 | +330 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -125 | +100 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Burnley vs. Aston Villa picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Burnley | +500 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -125 |
According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Burnley to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Burnley vs. Aston Villa: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| BUR 1-1 AVL | 10.2% |
| BUR 0-1 AVL | 10.1% |
| BUR 1-2 AVL | 10% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 54.5% chance of both sides finding the net and a 45.5% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Burnley vs. Aston Villa game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's Premier League action between Burnley and Aston Villa at Turf Moor is scheduled to begin in the USA at 9:00 AM ET.
- Who: Burnley vs. Aston Villa
- Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
- Time: 9:00 AM ET/6:00AM PT
- Venue: Turf Moor
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Burnley has a 19.0% win probability on Sunday, Aston Villa has a 59.4% win probability, and there is a 21.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
$0 for 3 days
then $14.99/week
Already a Pro member? Log in
New here? See everything Pro includes
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure