Burnley vs. Aston Villa prediction, odds, Premier League picks [5/10/2026]

Burnley will take on Aston Villa in Premier League action at Turf Moor on Sunday, commencing at 9:00 AM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced Premier League model predicts Aston Villa as the most likely winner of the Burnley vs. Aston Villa game.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Burnley vs. Aston Villa prediction: Who will win?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Premier League match between Burnley and Aston Villa, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 17.9% chance of Burnley winning, a 61.1% chance for Aston Villa, and a 21.0% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 58% chance of going over, according to our model.

Burnley vs. Aston Villa odds

We have researched the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Burnley	Aston Villa	Draw
+525	-190	+350

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-138	+110

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Burnley vs. Aston Villa picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Burnley	+525
Total Goals	Over 2.5	-138

According to our best Premier League bets, the top play to make on this game is Burnley to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Burnley vs. Aston Villa: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-1 Aston Villa win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
BUR 1-2 AVL	10%
BUR 0-1 AVL	10%
BUR 0-2 AVL	10%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 54.5% chance of both sides finding the net and a 45.5% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Burnley vs. Aston Villa game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's Premier League game between Burnley and Aston Villa at Turf Moor is scheduled to commence in the USA at 9:00 AM ET.

• Who: Burnley vs. Aston Villa
• Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
• Time: 9:00 AM ET/6:00AM PT
• Venue: Turf Moor

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Burnley has a 17.9% win probability on Sunday, Aston Villa has a 61.1% win probability, and there is a 21.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.