Flames vs. Capitals prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Monday's NHL matchup [3/9/2026]

The Washington Capitals and Calgary Flames are scheduled to meet in the NHL at Capital One Arena on Monday, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Capitals as the most likely winner of the Flames vs. Capitals game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Flames vs. Caps prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NHL game between the Flames and Capitals 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Capitals a 61% chance of defeating the Flames.

According to our model, the Flames (+1.5) have a 60% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 5.5 goals has a 51% chance of going over.

Flames vs. Capitals odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Flames	Capitals
Puck Line	+1.5 (-154)	-1.5 (+136)
Moneyline	+160	-190
Total	o5.5 (-128)	u5.5 (+110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Flames vs. Capitals picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Flames +1.5	-154
Moneyline	Flames	+160
Total	Under 5.5	+110

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 5.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Flames vs. Capitals player props

Who will score a goal in Flames vs. Capitals?

According to our model, Alex Ovechkin is most likely to score an anytime goal in Flames vs. Capitals.

Our projections give Ovechkin a 29.6% chance of scoring a goal at Capital One Arena, while the star is a 6.1% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Calgary Flames

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Yegor Sharangovich	23.9%
Victor Olofsson	22.6%
Matthew Coronato	22.3%
Morgan Frost	19.5%
Joel Farabee	18.9%

Washington Capitals

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Alex Ovechkin	29.6%
Aliaksei Protas	26.9%
Tom Wilson	26.8%
Dylan Strome	25.8%
Pierre-Luc Dubois	25.7%

First goal scorer predictions

Calgary Flames

Player	First Goal Probability
Yegor Sharangovich	4.8%
Victor Olofsson	4.7%
Matthew Coronato	4.0%
Morgan Frost	4.0%
Joel Farabee	3.7%

Washington Capitals

Player	First Goal Probability
Alex Ovechkin	6.1%
Pierre-Luc Dubois	5.5%
Aliaksei Protas	5.4%
Tom Wilson	5.3%
Dylan Strome	5.2%

Flames vs. Caps game-day updates and essential details

Monday's action between the Capitals and Flames at Capital One Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Calgary Flames vs. Washington Capitals
• Date: Monday, March 9, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Capital One Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Capitals, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Flames on Monday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Flames vs. Capitals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.