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Read Article Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Alexander Shevchenko prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Ugo Carabelli vs Shevchenko predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli will face Alexander Shevchenko in the round of 128 at the ATP Rome event on Wednesday.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Camilo Ugo Carabelli as the most likely winner of the Ugo Carabelli vs. Shevchenko match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Ugo Carabelli vs. Shevchenko prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's Ugo Carabelli-Shevchenko men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Ugo Carabelli a 70% chance of beating Shevchenko at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Ugo Carabelli has a 66% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Ugo Carabelli (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 57% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Alexander Shevchenko odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Ugo Carabelli | Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -235 | +200 |
| First Set | -189 | +150 |
| Game Spread | -3.5 (-112) | +3.5 (-118) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-104) | u22.5 (-130) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Ugo Carabelli vs. Shevchenko picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Shevchenko | +200 |
| First Set | Shevchenko | -130 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Alexander Shevchenko to win.
Although Shevchenko is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Ugo Carabelli vs. Shevchenko updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Alexander Shevchenko is scheduled to start on Wednesday at 6:50 AM ET.
- Who: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Alexander Shevchenko
- Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2026
- Approx. Time: 6:50 AM ET/3:50AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Camilo Ugo Carabelli, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat Alexander Shevchenko at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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