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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti prediction, odds, picks for ATP World Tour Finals 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Alcaraz vs Musetti predictions for ATP World Tour Finals 2025.
Carlos Alcaraz will face Lorenzo Musetti in the ATP World Tour Finals Men's Singles 2025 event on Thursday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the Alcaraz vs. Musetti match.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Alcaraz vs. Musetti prediction: Who will win ATP World Tour Finals 2025 match?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Alcaraz-Musetti men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Alcaraz an 86% chance of beating Musetti at the ATP World Tour Finals 2025 tournament.
Additionally, Alcaraz has an 80% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Alcaraz (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the **over/under of 20.5 games has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -699 | +546 |
| First Set | -455 | +333 |
| Game Spread | +4.5 (+106) | -4.5 (-140) |
| Total Games | o20.5 (-105) | u20.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Alcaraz vs. Musetti picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Musetti | +546 |
| First Set | Musetti | -105 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 20.5 total games.
Alcaraz vs. Musetti updates and essential details
The ATP World Tour Finals 2025 match between Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 2:30PM ET.
- Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti
- Date: Thursday, November 13, 2025
- Approx. Time: 2:30PM ET/11:30AM PT
- Tournament: ATP World Tour Finals Men's Singles 2025
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
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Conclusion
We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with an 86% win probability, will likely beat Lorenzo Musetti at the ATP World Tour Finals 2025 tournament.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Alcaraz vs. Musetti insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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