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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez prediction, odds, picks for ATP Monte-Carlo Masters 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Alcaraz vs Baez predictions for ATP Monte-Carlo Masters.
Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez will meet in the round of 32 of the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters event on Tuesday.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the Alcaraz vs. Baez match.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Alcaraz vs. Baez prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's Alcaraz-Baez men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Alcaraz a 96% chance of defeating Baez at the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters tournament.
Additionally, Alcaraz has a 91% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Baez (+6.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 17.5 games has a 59% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -5000 | +1400 |
| First Set | -1250 | +700 |
| Game Spread | -6.5 (-132) | +6.5 (-106) |
| Total Games | o17.5 (-122) | u17.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Alcaraz vs. Baez picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baez | +1400 |
| First Set | Baez | -122 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Sebastian Baez to win the first set.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Alcaraz vs. Baez updates and essential details
The ATP Monte-Carlo Masters match between Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez is scheduled to start on Tuesday at 7:00 AM ET.
- Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez
- Date: Tuesday, April 7, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:00 AM ET/4:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Monte Carlo, Monaco Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 32
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with a 96% win probability, will likely beat Sebastian Baez at the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters tournament.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Alcaraz vs. Baez insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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