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CFB 'Championship Week' picks, predictions and odds: Dimers model backs Ohio State, Virginia
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
We break down the top NCAAF Championship Week picks and CFB predictions, with the help of the Dimers Pro College Football model.
The road to the College Football playoff culminates here. Championship Week 2025 brings us nine pivotal conference title games across Friday, December 5, and Saturday, December 6. With college football lines varying significantly - from tight field-goal margins in the SEC to double-digit spreads in the Big 12 - the CFB betting landscape is volatile.
As it's done all season, the Dimers Pro prediction model has run over 10,000 simulations for every matchup on the board. By analyzing the latest college football odds, the model has identified critical edges for the Big Ten, ACC, and SEC championship games - as well as two player props and an underdog to win outright at plus-money.
Below is a breakdown of the model’s top Championship Week picks and CFB predictions from Dimers Pro.
Best bet for Championship Week 2025:
Looking for a high-value underdog? Well, you're in luck! The model has identified a dog to defy expectations and not just cover, but actually win their matchup. Their win probability equates to a positive expected value (+EV) edge of 3.2% on the moneyline.
Tulane moneyline (+116)
The model has flagged the Tulane Green Wave as a live dog in their Friday matchup against North Texas. At +116 odds, the model identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge of 3.2% on the Tulane moneyline.
Big Ten Championship: Indiana vs. Ohio State (7pm ET)
Big Ten Picks: Ohio State -4.5 / Over 47.5
The marquee matchup of the weekend features the Indiana Hoosiers facing off against the Ohio State Buckeyes. While the public narrative heavily favors the underdog (Indiana) based on recent form, our model simulations suggest value still lies with the favorite (Ohio State) - just.
On first glance, the case for Indiana is undeniably strong. Indiana's statistical dominance is highlighted by a +401 point differential - the best mark in the country and a staggering 50-points better than the Buckeyes produced during the regular season. Furthermore, Indiana is led by Fernando Mendoza, the current Heisman favorite who leads the FBS with 32 passing touchdowns and tops the Big Ten in yards per attempt.
Conversely, Ohio State QB Julian Sayin has faced adversity recently, throwing interceptions in back-to-back road games, contributing to a defensive turnover drought for the Buckeyes spanning five games. Despite these surface-level trends seemingly favoring Indiana, the Dimers model projected Ohio State (-4.5) to leverage its roster talent, covering the spread in over 50% of its simulations. The model also identified a small edge on the Over (47.5), predicting a higher-scoring affair than the odds on many of the CFB betting sites imply.
In terms of the best prop pick for this game, look no further than Touchdown machine Jeremiah Smith. With a probability of 60.9%, his -130 odds equates to a healthy 4.4% +EV edge.
ACC Picks: Virginia -4.5
In the ACC Championship Game, the model has identified the Virginia Cavaliers to cover the spread against the Duke Blue Devils.
However, the betting public may be wary of Virginia due to a recent offensive slump. After averaging 36.4 points per game through their first nine weeks, the Cavaliers' scoring output has dropped by more than 13 points per game over their last three contests, a stretch marred by five turnovers.
On the other sideline, Duke boasts the ACC’s second-ranked offense (34.6 ppg) and elite ball security, having thrown the second-fewest interceptions in the FBS. Despite Duke’s efficiency and Virginia’s recent regression, our simulations indicate that the market has overcorrected.
The model backs Virginia to bounce back and cover the -4.5 spread at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC.
In terms of prop picks, Nate Sheppard to score a TD looks very solid at the current -129 odds.
Beyond the Big Ten and ACC, the model is monitoring several other high-stakes clashes.
SEC Championship
- Matchup: Georgia vs. Alabama
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Time: 4:00 PM ET
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
The Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5) head to Mercedes-Benz Stadium as slight favorites. The narrative here is revenge; Georgia is looking to avenge its solitary loss of the season, which came at the hands of Alabama earlier in the year.
Big 12 Championship
- Teams: Brigham Young vs. Texas Tech
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Time: 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
This game features the widest spread of the Power 4 matchups. Texas Tech (-12.5) is a heavy favorite, largely because they dominated BYU by 28 points in their November 8 meeting. The Red Raiders will look to replicate that rout.
MAC Championship
- Teams: Miami Ohio vs. Western Michigan
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Time: 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: Ford Field (Detroit, MI)
Action kicks off early with the MAC title game at Ford Field, where Western Michigan is a 1.5-point favorite over Miami Ohio. Our predicted final score for this college football matchup is Miami Ohio 20-24 Western Michigan.
Full Championship Week schedule and odds:
*Odds subject to change
Friday, December 5, 2025
- Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State (-2.5, 59.5)
- Troy vs. James Madison (-23.5, 47.5)
- North Texas vs. Tulane (+2.5, 66.5)
- UNLV vs. Boise State (-3.5, 58.5)
Saturday, December 6, 2025
- BYU vs. Texas Tech (-12.5, 49.5)
- Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan (-2.5, 43.5)
- Georgia vs. Alabama (-2.5, 47.5)
- Indiana vs. Ohio State (-4.5, 47.5)
- Duke vs. Virginia (-4.5, 57.5)
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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