Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies prediction: Why Crows are favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 20 matchup [7/23/2026]
Get Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies predictions for AFL Thursday.
AFL action continues on Thursday at 5:30 AM ET as the Collingwood Magpies take on the Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Crows as the most likely winner of the Magpies vs. Crows game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Crows vs. Magpies prediction: Who will win Round 20 game?
Our leading predictive model gives the Crows a 68.4% chance of defeating the Magpies.
According to our model, the Magpies (+14.5) have a 50.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 163.5 points has a 50.8% chance of staying under,.
Collingwood vs. Adelaide odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Magpies | Crows |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +190 | -244 |
| Line (Spread) | +14.5 (-115) | -14.5 (-115) |
| Total | o163.5 (-115) | u163.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Magpies vs. Crows picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Magpies +14.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Crows | -244 |
| Total | Under 163.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 163.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Crows vs. Magpies game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football matchup between the Crows and Magpies at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to commence at 5:30 AM ET.
- Who: Collingwood Magpies vs. Adelaide Crows
- Date: Thursday, July 23, 2026
- Time: 5:30 AM ET/2:30AM PT
- Venue: Adelaide Oval
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Crows, with a 68.4% win probability, will likely beat the Magpies in Thursday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
