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Read Article Cristian Garin vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get Garin vs Cerundolo predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Cristian Garin will square off with Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the round of 128 at the ATP Rome event on Thursday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Cristian Garin as the most likely winner of the Garin vs. Cerundolo match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Garin vs. Cerundolo prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Garin-Cerundolo men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives Garin a 57% chance of winning against Cerundolo at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Garin has a 56% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the bookmakers have got it right with the -1.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the under 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Cristian Garin vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Garin | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -150 | +128 |
| First Set | -139 | +110 |
| Game Spread | -1.5 (-122) | +1.5 (-110) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-112) | u22.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Garin vs. Cerundolo picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cerundolo | +128 |
| First Set | Cerundolo | -118 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Juan Cerundolo to win.
Although Cerundolo is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Garin vs. Cerundolo updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Cristian Garin and Juan Manuel Cerundolo is scheduled to start on Thursday at 10:05 AM ET.
- Who: Cristian Garin vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Approx. Time: 10:05 AM ET/7:05AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Cristian Garin, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat Juan Cerundolo at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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