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Stars vs. Avalanche prediction: Why Colorado is favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [3/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche predictions for NHL Wednesday.
NHL action continues on Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET as the Dallas Stars lock horns with the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Avalanche as the most likely winner of the Stars vs. Avalanche game.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Stars vs. Avs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NHL game between the Stars and Avalanche 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Avalanche a 56% chance of defeating the Stars.
According to our model, the Stars (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under.
Stars vs. Avalanche odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Stars | Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-198) | -1.5 (+165) |
| Moneyline | +124 | -145 |
| Total | o6.5 (+105) | u6.5 (-125) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stars vs. Avalanche picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Stars +1.5 | -198 |
| Moneyline | Stars | +124 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -125 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Stars to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Stars vs. Avalanche player props
Who will score a goal in Stars vs. Avalanche?
According to our model, Martin Necas is most likely to score an anytime goal in Stars vs. Avalanche.
Our projections give Necas a 37.4% chance of scoring a goal at Ball Arena, while the star is a 7.7% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston | 36.6% |
| Jason Robertson | 34.9% |
| Matt Duchene | 26.8% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 23.1% |
| Jamie Benn | 18.8% |
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Martin Necas | 37.4% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 35.8% |
| Brock Nelson | 32.9% |
| Nazem Kadri | 31.9% |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 31.2% |
First goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston | 7.2% |
| Jason Robertson | 6.7% |
| Matt Duchene | 4.4% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 4.3% |
| Jamie Benn | 3.1% |
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Martin Necas | 7.7% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 6.5% |
| Brock Nelson | 6.3% |
| Nazem Kadri | 6.0% |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 5.9% |
Stars vs. Avs game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's game between the Avalanche and Stars at Ball Arena is scheduled to begin at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche
- Date: Wednesday, March 18, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: Ball Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Avalanche, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Stars on Wednesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Stars vs. Avalanche insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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