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Stars vs. Wild prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Game 4 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild predictions for NHL Saturday.
NHL Playoffs action continues on Saturday at 5:30 PM ET as the Dallas Stars lock horns with the Minnesota Wild in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Grand Casino Arena.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Wild a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Stars Game 4 matchup.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's Stars vs. Wild matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Stars vs. Wild prediction: Who will win Game 4?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL Playoffs game between the Stars and Wild, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Wild a 54% chance of beating the Stars in Game 4 of the series.
According to our model, the Stars (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of going over.
Stars vs. Wild Game 4 odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Stars | Wild |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-210) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Moneyline | +118 | -135 |
| Total | o5.5 (+110) | u5.5 (+110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stars vs. Wild picks and best bet for Game 4
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Stars +1.5 | -210 |
| Moneyline | Stars | +118 |
| Total | Over 5.5 | +110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 5.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Stars vs. Wild player props
Who will score a goal in Stars vs. Wild?
According to our model, Kirill Kaprizov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Stars vs. Wild.
Our projections give Kaprizov a 42.6% chance of scoring a goal at Grand Casino Arena, while the star is a 9.5% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston | 35.8% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 35.0% |
| Jason Robertson | 33.1% |
| Matt Duchene | 25.1% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 21.8% |
Minnesota Wild
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | 42.6% |
| Matt Boldy | 29.6% |
| Joel Ek | 24.6% |
| Ryan Hartman | 22.0% |
| Danila Yurov | 20.1% |
First goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston | 7.4% |
| Jason Robertson | 6.7% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 6.6% |
| Matt Duchene | 4.7% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 3.9% |
Minnesota Wild
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | 9.5% |
| Matt Boldy | 5.6% |
| Joel Ek | 4.3% |
| Ryan Hartman | 4.2% |
| Danila Yurov | 3.9% |
Stars vs. Wild Game 4 updates and essential details
Saturday's Game 4 between the Wild and Stars in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to commence at 5:30 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild
- Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
- Time: 5:30 PM ET/2:30PM PT
- Venue: Grand Casino Arena
The Stanley Cup Playoffs is the National Hockey League's postseason elimination tournament to decide the winner of the Stanley Cup.
A total of 16 teams, including the Stars and Wild, reached the NHL Playoffs 2026, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.
Each round is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Conclusion
We predict the Wild, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Stars in Saturday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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