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Damir Dzumhur vs. Mattia Bellucci prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Dzumhur vs Bellucci predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Damir Dzumhur will take on Mattia Bellucci in the round of 128 at the ATP Madrid event on Wednesday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Mattia Bellucci as the most likely winner of the Dzumhur vs. Bellucci match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Dzumhur vs. Bellucci prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's Dzumhur-Bellucci men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Bellucci a 51% chance of defeating Dzumhur at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Dzumhur has a 51% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Dzumhur (+0.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Damir Dzumhur vs. Mattia Bellucci odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Dzumhur | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +105 | -125 |
| First Set | +100 | -125 |
| Game Spread | +0.5 (-110) | -0.5 (-122) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-112) | u22.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Dzumhur vs. Bellucci picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dzumhur | +105 |
| First Set | Bellucci | -112 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Damir Dzumhur to win.
Although Dzumhur is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Dzumhur vs. Bellucci updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Damir Dzumhur and Mattia Bellucci is scheduled to begin on Wednesday at 6:55 AM ET.
- Who: Damir Dzumhur vs. Mattia Bellucci
- Date: Wednesday, April 22, 2026
- Approx. Time: 6:55 AM ET/3:55AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Mattia Bellucci, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat Damir Dzumhur at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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