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Daniel Merida vs. Corentin Moutet prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Merida vs Moutet predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Daniel Merida and Corentin Moutet will meet in the round of 64 of the ATP Madrid Open event on Saturday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Corentin Moutet as the most likely winner of the Merida vs. Moutet match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Merida vs. Moutet prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Merida-Moutet men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives Moutet a 60% chance of defeating Merida at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Moutet has a 57% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Merida (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 21.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Daniel Merida vs. Corentin Moutet odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Merida | Moutet |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +172 | -191 |
| First Set | +150 | -189 |
| Game Spread | +3.5 (-120) | -3.5 (-110) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-120) | u21.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Merida vs. Moutet picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Merida | +172 |
| First Set | Moutet | -120 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Daniel Merida to win.
Although Merida is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Merida vs. Moutet updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Daniel Merida and Corentin Moutet is scheduled to start on Saturday at 1:10 PM ET.
- Who: Daniel Merida vs. Corentin Moutet
- Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
- Approx. Time: 1:10 PM ET/10:10AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Corentin Moutet, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat Daniel Merida at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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