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Red Wings vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Monday's NHL matchup [4/13/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Monday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning will take on the Detroit Red Wings in NHL action at Benchmark International Arena on Monday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Red Wings vs. Lightning game.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Red Wings vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's NHL game between the Red Wings and Lightning, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lightning a 63% chance of beating the Red Wings.
According to our model, the Red Wings (+1.5) have a 60% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 55% chance of staying under.
Red Wings vs. Lightning odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Red Wings | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-142) | -1.5 (+125) |
| Moneyline | +164 | -190 |
| Total | o6.5 (+105) | u6.5 (-124) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Red Wings vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Red Wings +1.5 | -142 |
| Moneyline | Red Wings | +164 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -124 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Red Wings +1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Red Wings vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Red Wings vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Red Wings vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Guentzel a 45.7% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 9.4% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat | 34.1% |
| Dylan Larkin | 31.6% |
| Lucas Raymond | 26.3% |
| Patrick Kane | 25.9% |
| David Perron | 15.1% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 45.7% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 42.5% |
| Brayden Point | 40.9% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 29.1% |
| Gage Goncalves | 19.5% |
First goal scorer predictions
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat | 6.2% |
| Dylan Larkin | 5.8% |
| Lucas Raymond | 4.9% |
| Patrick Kane | 4.8% |
| Emmitt Finnie | 2.8% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 9.4% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 9.1% |
| Brayden Point | 8.3% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 5.4% |
| Gage Goncalves | 3.5% |
Red Wings vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Monday's game between the Lightning and Red Wings at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Detroit Red Wings vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Monday, April 13, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Red Wings in Monday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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