Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [1/21/2026]

The Toronto Maple Leafs will square off with the Detroit Red Wings, in what is expected to be a close NHL game, at Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Maple Leafs a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Red Wings.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NHL matchup between the Red Wings and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Maple Leafs a 54% chance of beating the Red Wings.

According to our model, the Red Wings (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 58% chance of going over.

Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Red Wings	Maple Leafs
Puck Line	+1.5 (-230)	-1.5 (+198)
Moneyline	+105	-120
Total	o6 (-120)	u6 (+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs -1.5	+198
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	-120
Total	Over 6	-120

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6 total goals.

Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Matthews a 46.9% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 10.5% chance of registering the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Detroit Red Wings

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Alex DeBrincat	33.9%
Dylan Larkin	30.8%
Lucas Raymond	25.9%
James van Riemsdyk	25.8%
Patrick Kane	22.9%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	46.9%
John Tavares	31.4%
Matthew Knies	30.1%
Bobby McMann	29.1%
Matias Maccelli	20.2%

First goal scorer predictions

Detroit Red Wings

Player	First Goal Probability
Alex DeBrincat	6.1%
Dylan Larkin	5.8%
James van Riemsdyk	4.8%
Lucas Raymond	4.7%
Patrick Kane	3.9%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	10.5%
John Tavares	6.1%
Bobby McMann	5.4%
Matthew Knies	5.2%
Nicholas Robertson	3.5%

Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's action between the Maple Leafs and Red Wings at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Detroit Red Wings vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Wednesday, January 21, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Red Wings on Wednesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.