Dinger Tuesday Home Run Picks: Top five HR hitters in the Dimers App today, May 12

Home run betting gets a boost today, May 12, as FanDuel's "Dinger Tuesday" promo returns every Tuesday during the 2026 MLB season, with this year's version offering a choice between a Bet Reset Token or a 50% Profit Boost Token, both eligible on any "To Hit a Home Run" wager for today's MLB games.

If you're new to the promotion or just need a refresher on the updated rules, we've got everything you need below, including today's top home run probabilities ranked by the Dimers model as seen with Dimers Pro.

Speaking of Dimers Pro, you can get every player's home run prediction every single day, making it the ultimate tool for home run betting in 2026. Sign up today and get a three-day free trial!

What Is Dinger Tuesday?

Dinger Tuesday is FanDuel Sportsbook's long-running weekly MLB promotion, dropping every Tuesday during the baseball season. This year, FanDuel has changed the format with a Choose Your Own Reward option, giving bettors the two bonuses to pick from.

Here's how it works:

1. Find the Choose Your Own Reward carousel card on the FanDuel homepage and click "Choose Reward."
2. Select one of two options: a Bet Reset Token or a 50% Profit Boost Token.
3. Click "Claim Reward" — it'll be loaded directly into your FanDuel account.
4. Apply it to any eligible "To Hit a Home Run" straight bet or parlay for today's MLB games.

Today's top home run probabilities – May 12, 2026

Our model has crunched the numbers across today's full MLB slate.

Below is a ranking of the best home run probabilities on the board and a breakdown of each matchup.

1. Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers)

Game: Giants vs. Dodgers

Dimers Probability: 26.2%

FanDuel Odds: +225

Leading today's slate at over 26% to go yard is Dodgers two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, looking for his first HR in 11 games, his second such streak of the season.

He snapped that streak in his 12th game and we're putting him right at the top of the board to do so again vs. the Giants on Tuesday. Ohtani is a prolific home run hitter who is simply off to a slower start by his usual standards and plenty of his underlying metrics show his power is still there, just not hitting its full potential.

He'll get RHP Adrian Houser tonight in Dodger Stadium, who's given up 5 HR in 17.0 IP to lefties. Houser primarily deploys a sinker/changeup combo to lefthanded hitters, two pitches Ohtani has crushed in the past and is hitting well this year.

A little wind blowing out could help Ohtani's case as well, and his +225 odds are an improvement from this morning's opening odds around +185, though not quite his fair price of +280, but the FanDuel 50% boost will take you over that number.

2. Nick Kurtz (Athletics)

Game: Cardinals vs. Athletics

Dimers Probability: 25.7%

FanDuel Odds: +310

Next up is another player who's overdue for a dinger, who's current 14-game streak without a HR has passed his longest of 13 days to open the season, Nick Kurtz.

Kurtz may not hit his impressive rookie mark of 37 home runs from last year, but he's got 5 so far and all of his numbers suggest he could have more, ranking in the 90th percentile of better in most batted ball home run metrics.

He's smacked all of his HR off righties this year and het gets another one tonight in Andre Pallante of the Cardinals, who's allowed 3 HR to lefties and a HR in five straight starts. He mostly throws fastball/curve to lefthanded batters, and Kurtz is slugging those two pitches best of all this year.

Good weather and a good matchup points to a strong chance to go yard for Kurtz, who is a very slight edge at 25.7%, with fair odds at +290.

3. Shea Langeliers (Athletics)

Game: Cardinals vs. Athletics

Dimers Probability: 24.3%

FanDuel Odds: +300

We have two more players form this game in our Top 5, and just behind Kurtz is his teammate Shea Langeliers, off to an excellent start with 11 home runs and a 1.011 OPS.

He's got 3 HR this month and will look to make it 4 against that same matchup with Pallante as outlined above.

Langeliers is great against both sides of the plate, but has crushed 8 HR off righthanders and hits both the sinker/slider, Pallante's preferred two-pitch setup vs. righties, very well.

At +300, Langeliers is just shy of his fair odds at +310, but the 50% FanDuel would make him a massive edge play at +450.

Today's Top 5 HR hitters as seen in the Dimers App.

4. Brent Rooker (Athletics)

Game: Cardinals vs. Athletics

Dimers Probability: 22.6%

FanDuel Odds: +360

Our third and final player from this game featured in this article is another Athletic, Brent Rooker who's been a little under the radar this year after three-straight 30+ HR seasons.

He's up to 5 on the year after a recent little power surge that includes a pair of HR in his past four games, but he's having a rough time hitting in general, with a .189 AVG and .639 OPS, both well below his career .256 and .820 marks.

Between his form and missing a couple of weeks in April, Rooker got off to such a slow start that 30% of all of his hits this year are home runs. He looks to be turning it around with four multi-hit games this month (three of those with a HR).

He matches up best with righthanded pitchers, but doesn't hit Pallante's pitch mix particularly well. He's a good candidate for positive regression, but is appropriately ranked third in this game and would be a slight edge with fair odds at +340.

5. JJ Bleday (Reds)

Game: Nationals vs. Reds

Dimers Probability: 20.4%

FanDuel Odds: +310

We round out the Top 5 with what is likely the best pitching matchup on the slate, the Nationals and starter Miles Mikolas, with JJ Bleday receiving top honors from the Dimers model.

Mikolas has given up 9 HR this season, tied for fourth-most by pitchers and behind him is a Nationals bullpen that's allowed 28 HR, the second-most in MLB.

JJ Bleday isn't known as a power bat, but his early hitting metrics show some of his best hard-hit balls in his career and he's picked up 4 HR in just 42 AB so far.

He favors righthanded pitching like he'll get with Mikolas, who uses a wide array of pitches against lefties, but mostly deploys the 4-seamer, Bleday's best pitch every year.

Fair odds for Bleday would be just short of +400, so no value on him at his base price, but like most in this article, the 50% boost would take him well into value territory.

Three ways to bet on Dinger Tuesday

1. High Probability approach

Back the players at the top of the probability list. You'll often be betting on the game's premier power hitters at shorter odds, but you're maximizing your chance of cashing. Pair this approach with the Profit Boost Token to squeeze some extra payout out of a high-confidence pick.

2. Maximum Value approach

Look for players where our model's probability significantly outpaces the implied probability in their FanDuel odds. Sometimes those will be top probability players, other times you'll have to check out our best MLB props if they're further down the board. These edges are where the real value always lies. Similarly, you can use the Profit Boost Token to turn a player who isn't a value play into a value play.

3. The Longshot Parlay

Stack two or more of today's value plays into a parlay for a significantly higher payout. Use the Bet Reset token to return your original wager in the form of bonus bets in case the wager loses. Just keep your unit size smaller than you'd use on a straight wager as parlays carry substantially higher variance.

Tips to picking your home run bets

A few key factors worth checking before locking in your picks:

• Matchup: How does the batter fare against this starter's primary pitch mix?
• Ballpark: Is there a short porch, elevation advantage, or favorable wind forecast?
• Bullpen: If the starter exits early, who's coming in — and are they prone to the long ball?
• Weather: Wind direction and temperature matter. Always check before first pitch.
• Head-to-Head History: Past at-bats against today's starter can reveal hidden edges.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-MY-RESET for crisis counseling and support.