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Read Article Canberra Raiders vs. Dolphins prediction: Why Raiders are favored to win Thursday's NRL Round 12 matchup [5/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Canberra Raiders vs Dolphins predictions for NRL Thursday.
The Canberra Raiders and Dolphins will meet in the National Rugby League (NRL) at GIO Stadium Canberra on Thursday, starting at 5:50 AM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NRL model projects the Raiders as the most likely winner of the Dolphins vs. Raiders game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Raiders vs. Dolphins prediction: Who will win Round 12 game?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NRL game between the Dolphins and Raiders, forming part of our NRL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Raiders a 54% chance of defeating the Dolphins.
According to our model, the Dolphins (+4.5) have a 61% chance of covering the spread, while the 49.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
Dolphins vs. Raiders odds
We have sourced the best NRL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Dolphins | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +120 | -154 |
| Line (Spread) | +4.5 (-120) | -4.5 (-105) |
| Total | o49.5 (-115) | u49.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Dolphins vs. Raiders picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins +4.5 | -120 |
| Moneyline | Dolphins | bet_rivers_in+120 |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -115 |
According to our best NRL bets, the top play to make on this game is Dolphins +4.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Raiders vs. Dolphins game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rugby league matchup between the Raiders and Dolphins at GIO Stadium Canberra is scheduled to commence at 5:50 AM ET.
- Who: Dolphins vs. Canberra Raiders
- Date: Thursday, May 21, 2026
- Time: 5:50 AM ET/2:50AM PT
- Venue: GIO Stadium Canberra
The NRL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with there even being games played in Vegas each season as of 2024.
Conclusion
We predict the Raiders, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Thursday's NRL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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