Francisco Cerundolo vs. Alex de Minaur prediction, odds, picks for ATP Hamburg Open 2026

Francisco Cerundolo will take on Alex de Minaur in the round of 32 at the ATP Hamburg event on Monday.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Francisco Cerundolo as the most likely winner of the Cerundolo vs. de Minaur match.

This article offers a closer look at Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

Cerundolo vs. de Minaur prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's Cerundolo-de Minaur men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Cerundolo a 60% chance of beating de Minaur at the ATP Hamburg Open tournament.

Additionally, Cerundolo has a 59% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the bookmakers have got it right with the -2.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the **over/under of 22.5 games also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.

Francisco Cerundolo vs. Alex de Minaur odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Cerundolo	de Minaur
Moneyline	-165	+140
First Set	-164	+130
Game Spread	-2.5 (-118)	+2.5 (-112)
Total Games	o22.5 (-110)	u22.5 (-120)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Cerundolo vs. de Minaur picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	de Minaur	+140
First Set	de Minaur	-110

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Alex de Minaur to win.

Although de Minaur is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Cerundolo vs. de Minaur updates and essential details

The ATP Hamburg Open match between Francisco Cerundolo and Alex de Minaur is scheduled to begin on Monday at 6:00 AM ET.

• Who: Francisco Cerundolo vs. Alex de Minaur
• Date: Monday, May 18, 2026
• Approx. Time: 6:00 AM ET/3:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Hamburg, Germany Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Francisco Cerundolo, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat Alex de Minaur at the ATP Hamburg Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.