May 30, 2026
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Read Article Astros vs. Twins prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [5/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins predictions for MLB Monday.
The Minnesota Twins will face the Houston Astros, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Target Field on Monday, beginning at 7:40 PM ET.
Kendry Rojas (1-0, 2.46 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Twins, up against Tatsuya Imai (1-1, 9.24 ERA) for the Astros.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Twins a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Astros.
This article offers further insights into Monday's Astros vs. Twins matchup, including best bets and picks.
Astros vs. Twins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB game between the Astros and Twins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Twins a 51% chance of defeating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the run line, while the 9-run over/under has a 55% chance of going over.
Astros vs. Twins odds [5/18/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Astros | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-220) | -1.5 (+165) |
| Moneyline | -105 | -110 |
| Total | o9 (-120) | u9 (-101) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Astros vs. Twins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Twins -1.5 | +165 |
| Moneyline | Twins | -110 |
| Total | Over 9 | -120 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Astros vs. Twins game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB matchup between the Twins and Astros at Target Field is scheduled to commence at 7:40 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
- Date: Monday, May 18, 2026
- Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40PM PT
- Venue: Target Field
Conclusion
We predict the Twins, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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