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Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Alex Michelsen prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Struff vs Michelsen predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Jan-Lennard Struff will take on Alex Michelsen in the round of 64 at the ATP Madrid event on Friday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Jan-Lennard Struff as the most likely winner of the Struff vs. Michelsen match.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
Struff vs. Michelsen prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's Struff-Michelsen men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives Struff a 55% chance of defeating Michelsen at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Struff has a 55% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the bookmakers have got it right with the +1.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the under 23.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Alex Michelsen odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Struff | Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -142 | +118 |
| First Set | -139 | +110 |
| Game Spread | -1.5 (-118) | +1.5 (-112) |
| Total Games | o23.5 (-110) | u23.5 (-130) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Struff vs. Michelsen picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michelsen | +118 |
| First Set | Michelsen | -130 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Alex Michelsen to win.
Although Michelsen is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Struff vs. Michelsen updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Jan-Lennard Struff and Alex Michelsen is scheduled to start on Friday at 5:00 AM ET.
- Who: Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Alex Michelsen
- Date: Friday, April 24, 2026
- Approx. Time: 5:00 AM ET/2:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Jan-Lennard Struff, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat Alex Michelsen at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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