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Jannik Sinner vs. Rafael Jodar prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Sinner vs Jodar predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Jannik Sinner and Rafael Jodar are scheduled to meet in the quarterfinals of the ATP Madrid Open event on Wednesday.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Jannik Sinner as the most likely winner of the Sinner vs. Jodar match.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Sinner vs. Jodar prediction: Who will win and advance to the semifinals?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Sinner-Jodar men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives Sinner an 88% chance of defeating Jodar at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Sinner has an 83% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Sinner (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 20.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Jannik Sinner vs. Rafael Jodar odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sinner | Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -752 | +640 |
| First Set | -500 | +350 |
| Game Spread | -4.5 (-142) | +4.5 (+106) |
| Total Games | o20.5 (-108) | u20.5 (-124) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sinner vs. Jodar picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sinner | -752 |
| First Set | Jodar | -124 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 20.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sinner vs. Jodar updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Jannik Sinner and Rafael Jodar is scheduled to start on Wednesday at 10:00 AM ET.
- Who: Jannik Sinner vs. Rafael Jodar
- Date: Wednesday, April 29, 2026
- Approx. Time: 10:00 AM ET/7:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Quarterfinals
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Jannik Sinner, with an 88% win probability, will likely beat Rafael Jodar at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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