Jessica Pegula vs. Anastasia Potapova prediction, odds, picks for WTA Italian Open 2026

Jessica Pegula and Anastasia Potapova are scheduled to meet in the round of 16 of the WTA Italian Open event on Monday.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Jessica Pegula as the most likely winner of the Pegula vs. Potapova match.

This article offers a closer look at Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

Pegula vs. Potapova prediction: Who will win and advance to the quarterfinals?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's Pegula-Potapova women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Pegula a 63% chance of beating Potapova at the WTA Italian Open tournament.

Additionally, Pegula has a 61% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Potapova (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 21.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Jessica Pegula vs. Anastasia Potapova odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Pegula	Potapova
Moneyline	-210	+175
First Set	-189	+150
Game Spread	-3.5 (-120)	+3.5 (-110)
Total Games	o21.5 (-110)	u21.5 (-118)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Pegula vs. Potapova picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Potapova	+175
First Set	Potapova	-110

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Anastasia Potapova to win.

Although Potapova is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Pegula vs. Potapova updates and essential details

The WTA Italian Open match between Jessica Pegula and Anastasia Potapova is scheduled to begin on Monday at 11:50 AM ET.

• Who: Jessica Pegula vs. Anastasia Potapova
• Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
• Approx. Time: 11:50 AM ET/8:50AM PT
• Tournament: WTA Rome, Italy Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Jessica Pegula, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat Anastasia Potapova at the WTA Italian Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.