Jul 22, 2026
Tennis bets today: One pick for Wednesday ft. Jacquet vs. Blockx [7/22/2026]
Read Article Jessica Pegula vs. Iga Swiatek prediction, odds, picks for WTA Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Add Dimers on Google 
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Pegula vs Swiatek predictions for WTA Italian Open.
Jessica Pegula will take on Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals at the WTA Rome event on Wednesday.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Iga Swiatek as the most likely winner of the Pegula vs. Swiatek match.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Pegula vs. Swiatek prediction: Who will win and advance to the semifinals?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Pegula-Swiatek women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives Swiatek a 67% chance of beating Pegula at the WTA Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Swiatek has a 63% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Pegula (+4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 20.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Jessica Pegula vs. Iga Swiatek odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pegula | Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +215 | -250 |
| First Set | +175 | -227 |
| Game Spread | +4.5 (-122) | -4.5 (-110) |
| Total Games | o20.5 (-118) | u20.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pegula vs. Swiatek picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pegula | +215 |
| First Set | Swiatek | -118 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Jessica Pegula to win.
Although Pegula is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pegula vs. Swiatek updates and essential details
The WTA Italian Open match between Jessica Pegula and Iga Swiatek is scheduled to begin on Wednesday at 7:00 AM ET.
- Who: Jessica Pegula vs. Iga Swiatek
- Date: Wednesday, May 13, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:00 AM ET/4:00AM PT
- Tournament: WTA Rome, Italy Women's Singles 2026
- Round: Quarterfinals
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Iga Swiatek, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat Jessica Pegula at the WTA Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
Advertiser disclosure
