Jessica Pegula vs. Marta Kostyuk prediction, odds, picks for WTA Madrid Open 2026

Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk are scheduled to meet in the round of 32 of the WTA Madrid Open event on Sunday.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Jessica Pegula as the most likely winner of the Pegula vs. Kostyuk match.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Pegula vs. Kostyuk prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Pegula-Kostyuk women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Pegula a 57% chance of winning against Kostyuk at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.

Additionally, Pegula has a 54% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Kostyuk (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 21.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Jessica Pegula vs. Marta Kostyuk odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Pegula vs. Kostyuk picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Marta Kostyuk to win.

Although Kostyuk is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Pegula vs. Kostyuk updates and essential details

The WTA Madrid Open match between Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk is scheduled to commence on Sunday at 9:00 AM ET.

• Who: Jessica Pegula vs. Marta Kostyuk
• Date: Sunday, April 26, 2026
• Approx. Time: 9:00 AM ET/6:00AM PT
• Tournament: WTA Madrid, Spain Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Jessica Pegula, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat Marta Kostyuk at the WTA Madrid Open tournament.

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