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Joao Fonseca vs. Rafael Jodar prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Fonseca vs Jodar predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Joao Fonseca will square off with Rafael Jodar in the round of 32 at the ATP Madrid event on Sunday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Rafael Jodar as the most likely winner of the Fonseca vs. Jodar match.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.
Fonseca vs. Jodar prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Fonseca-Jodar men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives Jodar a 52% chance of beating Fonseca at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Jodar has a 51% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Fonseca (+1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Joao Fonseca vs. Rafael Jodar odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Fonseca | Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +111 | -125 |
| First Set | +100 | -125 |
| Game Spread | +1.5 (-120) | -1.5 (-110) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-118) | u22.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Fonseca vs. Jodar picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fonseca | +111 |
| First Set | Jodar | -112 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Joao Fonseca to win.
Although Fonseca is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Fonseca vs. Jodar updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Joao Fonseca and Rafael Jodar is scheduled to commence on Sunday at 3:10 PM ET.
- Who: Joao Fonseca vs. Rafael Jodar
- Date: Sunday, April 26, 2026
- Approx. Time: 3:10 PM ET/12:10PM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 32
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Rafael Jodar, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat Joao Fonseca at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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