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Read Article Aces vs. Sun prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Friday's WNBA matchup [5/15/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Las Vegas Aces vs Connecticut Sun predictions for WNBA Friday.
WNBA action continues on Friday at 7:30 PM ET as the Las Vegas Aces lock horns with the Connecticut Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Aces vs. Sun game.
The Sun, with the likes of Aneesah Morrow, Kennedy Burke and Diamond Miller, are set to take on the Aces, whose lineup includes A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chennedy Carter.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Aces vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's WNBA game between the Aces and Sun, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Aces a 90% chance of beating the Sun.
According to our model, the Sun (+15.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 172.5 points has a 61% chance of staying under.
Aces vs. Sun odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Aces | Sun |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -15.5 (-105) | +15.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -1200 | +800 |
| Total | o172.5 (-108) | u172.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Aces vs. Sun picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sun +15.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Sun | +800 |
| Total | Under 172.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 172.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Aces vs. Sun player props
Looking for Aces vs. Sun WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.
A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 26 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Aneesah Morrow is projected to have 10 points, 10 rebounds and 1 assists for the Sun.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Aces prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 26 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 52 |
| Jackie Young | 17 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 36 |
| Chennedy Carter | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 24 |
| Chelsea Gray | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 30 |
| Jewell Loyd | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
Sun prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aneesah Morrow | 10 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 27 |
| Kennedy Burke | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
| Diamond Miller | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Saniya Rivers | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| Aaliyah Edwards | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23 |
Aces vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details
Friday's game between the Sun and Aces at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun
- Date: Friday, May 15, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with a 90% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Friday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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